Green Bay Packers (11-5) vs Chicago Bears (4-12)
Game Info: Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 1:00 pm (Lambeau Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: Green Bay Packers -9 / Chicago Bears +9 — Over/Under: 43.5
The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers meet Sunday in NFL action from Lambeau Field. Here’s a Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bears vs Packers pick. We will examine:
The Chicago Bears’ recent form and player performance
The Green Bay Packers’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Chicago Bears
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Green Bay Packers
Recent betting trends in games played between the Bears and Packers
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Bears vs Packers game
Chicago Bears Betting Preview
The Bears started out well on a 4-2 run across their first six games. It’s been all losses since then, though. Chicago has fallen to the Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots, Packers, Vikings, Lions, 49ers, Vikings again, Lions again, and Seahawks since their bye week.
In the Seahawks game last Thursday, the Bears could only muster a field goal during a 6-3 first half. That score would hold through the second and Chicago lost 6-3. Caleb Williams threw for a tepid 122 yards and a pick in the loss, while DJ Moore caught six balls for 54 yards. Leading the rush was D’Andre Swift with his 12 carries for 53 yards.
The Bears aren’t scoring well this year; they average just 17.9 points per game against 21.8 points per game allowed. Chicago has 19 passing touchdowns versus 12 on the ground, but the team averages just 184.1 passing yards per game.
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Over on the Green Bay side, they went 6-3 before their bye week. The losses at that time were to the Eagles, Vikings and Lions. The Packers hit a 5-1 run over the next six, taking out the Bears, 49ers, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Saints.
Matched up against Minnesota on Sunday, the Packers were looking at a 13-3 deficit by halftime. Green Bay put up a touchdown in the third and scored 15 in the final quarter but ended up falling short 27-25. QB Jordan Love logged 185 yards with one TD, while Josh Jacobs added 17 carries for 69 yards and a score of his own. Leading the receivers was Romeo Dubbs on seven catches for 58 total yards.
This year Green Bay has been scoring pretty well on average with 27.4 points per game against 19.6 points allowed. The passing game averages 226.4 yards per game with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. On the ground, the Packers have 144.6 yards per game with 21 scores.
Why the Green Bay Packers will win
- The Packers have won each of their last 11 games against the Bears.
- The Bears have lost each of their last 11 Sunday games at Lambeau Field.
- The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight January games as underdogs.
- The Packers have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 Sunday games against the Bears.
- The favorites have won the first half in each of the Bears’ last six games.
- The Packers have won the first quarter in eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
Why the Chicago Bears will win
- The Packers have lost three of their last four games as favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Packers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games against NFC North opponents.
- The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as underdogs following a home loss.
- The underdogs have won the first half in three of the last four games between the Bears and Packers.
- The Packers have lost the first quarter in four of their last six games as home favorites against NFC North opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of the Bears’ last 10 games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Packers’ last seven games as home favorites following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Three of the last four games between NFC North teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts
- Jordan Love has recorded 261+ passing yards in each of the Packers’ last three games as favorites against NFC North opponents.
- Josh Jacobs has recorded 76+ rushing yards in each of the Packers’ last five Sunday games as favorites.
- Josh Jacobs has recorded 92+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of the Packers’ last nine games as favorites.
- Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last seven games as favorites.
- Josh Jacobs has recorded 21+ receiving yards in six of the Packers’ last seven games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- Jordan Love has recorded 22+ completions in eight of his last nine Sunday appearances at Lambeau Field.
- Jordan Love has thrown two or more touchdowns in eight of his last nine Sunday home appearances.
- Heading into Week 18, Josh Jacobs has recorded the equal-most rushing touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs 49ers, Week 12).
Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts
- Keenan Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bears’ last four games as underdogs against NFC North opponents.
- Cole Kmet has recorded 20+ receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last six road games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
- Caleb Williams has recorded 231+ passing yards in four of the Bears’ last five games as underdogs against NFC North opponents.
- Caleb Williams has recorded 33+ rushing yards in each of the Bears’ last four games as underdogs following a home loss.
- D.J. Moore has recorded 64+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last nine games as underdogs against NFC North opponents.
- Caleb Williams has recorded 23+ completions in three of the Bears’ last four Sunday games.
- Caleb Williams has thrown two touchdowns in each of the Bears’ last three Sunday games as underdogs.
- Heading into Week 18, D’Andre Swift ranks 1st in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (46.6%) this season.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Packers. On Sunday Green Bay played from behind for most of the game, finishing with just 271 total yards (167 passing) and 17 first downs on offense. The Packers gave up 441 yards and 26 first downs on the other side, which won’t cut it in the playoffs. Speaking of the postseason, Green Bay is locked in but could improve a bit with a win here paired with a Commanders loss. I’d like to see a return to form offensively first, though; the Packers had posted 30 or more points in five straight games prior to Sunday’s loss.
As for the Bears, they limped to an ugly loss against the Seahawks, posting just 179 total yards (76 passing) and 11 first downs. The Bears haven’t gotten past 20 points in a non-overtime finish for 10 straight games.
The good news for Chicago is that they were competitive the last time these teams met up, a 20-19 Packers win on November 17. That said, I don’t think the Bears have it in them to be much of a threat here, especially with nothing to play for outside of stopping this losing skid. Stranger things have happened though—and we will likely see some added motivation in this one due to the divisional familiarity.