Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 10/18/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Chicago Bears and the Atlanta Falcons meet Sunday in NFL action from Pista Mercedes-Benz in Atlanta. Here’s a Bears vs Falcons prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bears vs Falcons pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Chicago Bears Betting Preview

The Bears kicked off their 2026 campaign on a reasonable run. Chicago scored 59 points in a win over the Carolina Panthers during their opener, then lost a tough one 9-3 versus the rival Minnesota Vikings. The Bears would then win their next pair over the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Jets, vaulting the team to a 3-1 start through the first four outings.

In last weekend’s road game versus the Packers, the Bears gave up a couple of touchdowns in the first half but were only down 14-7 at the break. Chicago couldn’t get anything going in the second and ended up losing to their rivals 31-7 in the end. QB Tyson Bagent was 12-of-21 for 87 yards and two picks. D’Andre Swift led the rush with nine totes for 43 yards and a score.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Over on the Falcons’ side, they dropped their first couple of games this year. The opener was a 20-13 affair versus the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, then came a 34-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta won the next pair though, starting with a 35-14 victory over the Green Bay Packers before a 45-24 win over the New Orleans Saints for a 2-2 record.

Matched up against the Ravens on Sunday evening, the Falcons managed a couple of touchdowns in the first half and went into the third quarter with a lead 14-9. Atlanta ended up having to go to overtime, where they gave up a one-yard TD in a 30-23 loss. QB Michael Penix was 19-of-32 for 240 yards and a TD. Bijan Robinson had 17 carries for 86 yards in the defeat.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 6

 

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Falcons have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Bears have lost seven of their last eight Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• The Bears have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight day games played on the East Coast.
• The Falcons have covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Bears have lost the first quarter in five of their last six games as favorites following a road loss.
• The underdogs have won the first half in five of the Falcons’ last six Week 6 games.

Why the Chicago Bears will win

• The Falcons have lost seven of their last eight Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• The Bears have won seven of their last eight games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday home games.
• The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last four games without Tyson Bagent.
• The Falcons have lost the first quarter in three of their last four October home games against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have lost the first half in each of their last three October home games against NFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Falcons’ last five games as underdogs without Kyle Pitts have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Bears’ last four road games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 240+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Falcons’ last six games as underdogs.
• Brian Robinson has recorded 44+ rushing yards in each of his four previous appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC North opponents.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 147+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Falcons’ last six games as underdogs.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of his last 13 appearances with his team as an underdog following a loss.
• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 19+ completions in five of his last six home appearances.
• Heading into Week 6, Bijan Robinson has recorded the most rushing yards in a single game this season (194 vs Packers, Week 3).

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

• D’Andre Swift has scored a touchdown in each of his last six October appearances against NFC opponents.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 242+ passing yards in four of the Bears’ last five games following a road loss.
• Cole Kmet has recorded 14+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last nine appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• Cole Kmet has recorded 14+ receiving yards in each of his last nine appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 24+ rushing yards in four of his last five Sunday day road appearances.
• Heading into Week 6, D’Andre Swift has recorded the equal-most rushing touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Panthers, Week 1).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 6, the Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (166.8) this season.
• Heading into Week 6, the Falcons rank T2nd in the NFL in Q1 win percentage (60.0) this season.
• Bears – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.
• Bears – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.

Bears vs Falcons Prediction

I’ll go with the Bears. Chicago has a lot to clean up after that rough loss to the Packers over the weekend, though. The Bears managed just 246 total yards in that defeat with 17 first downs and a 4-of-14 success rate on third-down tries. Chicago gave up 428 yards and 18 first downs on the other side. The Bears have scored 23 or more points in all three of their wins this year; they’ve got a combined 10 points in their two losses.

As for the Falcons, they get credit for pushing a good Ravens team to overtime but couldn’t get the job done in the end. Atlanta managed 367 yards with 17 first downs in that one while surrendering 24 first downs and 391 yards on defense. The good news is that the Falcons have 23 or more points in three straight games (a 2-1 run).

Andrew Jett's Pick: Chicago Bears -3