Carolina (1-2) vs New England (1-2)
September 28, 2025 at 01:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New England -5.5 — Over/Under: +44.5
The Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action from Gillette Stadium. Here’s a Panthers vs Patriots prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Panthers vs Patriots pick. We will examine:
The Carolina Panthers recent form and player performance
The New England Patriots recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Carolina Panthers
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New England Patriots
Recent betting trends in games played between the Panthers and Patriots
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Panthers vs Patriots game
Carolina Panthers Betting Preview
The Panthers took a couple of losses in their first two games of the 2025 campaign. First up was a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Carolina gave up 17 points in the second quarter alone during a 26-10 defeat. The Panthers offense coughed up three turnovers and generated just 142 passing yards along the way. In game two versus the Arizona Cardinals, things went slightly better but Carolina still took a loss 27-22. This time the offense managed 303 passing yards but also had a couple of turnovers and went just 5-of-15 on third downs.
In their game last weekend versus the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina had a dominant outing. After a 10-0 edge in the first half, the Panthers closed on a 20-0 run for a 30-0 victory. QB Bryce Young logged 121 yards on 16-of-24 passing while also scoring a rush touchdown. Chuba Hubbard carried 17 times for 73 yards, and Rico Dowdle had 10 totes for 30 yards and a score. Tetairoa McMillan caught three balls for 48 yards to lead the receiving corps.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
Over on the New England side, they opened up the season with a matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders. The Pats went into the second half with a 10-7 lead but then gave up 10 unanswered points in the third quarter on the way to a 20-13 defeat. New England went just 4-of-14 on third-down conversions in that loss. Game two however, marked the Patriots’ first win of the season versus the rival Miami Dolphins. New England put up points in every quarter along the way to a 33-27 finish. It was a sloppy game though, with the Pats contributing 12 of the game’s 22 penalties.
Matched up against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, the Patriots were down 14-7 going into the final quarter. After trading touchdowns New England ended up with a 21-14 loss. QB Drake Maye was 28-of-37 for 268 yards, two scores and an interception while also topping the rush on 45 yards. Hunter Henry caught both TD passes as part of eight grabs for 90 yards.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots Betting Trends: Week 4
Why the New England Patriots will win
The Panthers have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against teams that held a losing record.
The home team has won five of the Panthers’ last six games.
The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games following a win.
The Patriots have covered the spread in three of their last four games against NFC South opponents.
The Patriots have won the first half in 16 of their last 18 September games as home favorites.
Why the Carolina Panthers will win
The Patriots have lost each of their last eight home games in September.
The Panthers have won three of their last four September games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight September games at Gillette Stadium.
The road team has covered the spread in five of the Patriots’ last six games.
The Panthers have won the first half in six of their last seven September road games against AFC opponents.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Patriots’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Panthers’ last five road games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Panthers vs Patriots Prediction
I’ll stay with Carolina here. The Panthers rolled right past Atlanta in their latest outing despite their offense posting a tepid 224 yards (114 passing), 4.1 yards per play, 15 first downs and 3-of-11 on third down tries. The defense held the Falcons to just 5-of-13 on third downs though, as well as collecting three takeaways. It was a nice shutout effort after giving up a combined 53 points across the first two games.
As for the Patriots, their glaring errors came in the way of turnovers during last weekend’s loss to the Steelers. New England lost four fumbles and threw an interception, all while generating 369 yards (250 passing), 5.2 yards per play and 26 first downs. On defense the Pats gave up just 203 yards (64 rushing) and 17 first downs but the team couldn’t overcome all the giveaways. New England has been below 15 points in each of their losses, but overall the defense isn’t playing too badly. Carolina is going to need some offensive spark here but I think they can pull off the cover.