Buffalo (6-2) vs Miami (2-7)
November 9, 2025 at 01:00 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Miami +9.5 — Over/Under: +50.5
The Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins meet Sunday in NFL action from Hard Rock Stadium. Here’s a Bills vs Dolphins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bills vs Dolphins pick. We will examine:
The Buffalo Bills recent form and player performance
The Miami Dolphins recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Buffalo Bills
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Dolphins
Recent betting trends in games played between the Bills and Dolphins
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Bills vs Dolphins game
The Bills hit the ground running this year with wins over the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Saints in their first four. Buffalo would then lose to the Patriots and Falcons in consecutive games before another win over the Carolina Panthers. In that 40-9 blowout on the road, Buffalo put up 410 yards, 245 rushing yards, 23 first downs and a nice 7-of-12 success rate on third-down conversions. The Bills defense gave up 244 yards on the other side with 19 first downs and three takeaways in the winning road effort.
Matched up against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, Buffalo held a 21-13 edge at halftime then added another TD in the third. The Chiefs scored eight unanswered points in the final frame but the Bills held on for the win 28-21. QB Josh Allen went 23-of-26 for 273 yards and a score while also scoring twice on the ground. James Cook had 27 carries for 114 yards and Dalton Kincaid added six catches for 101 yards and two scores.
Over on the Dolphins’ side, they’ve had quite a struggle this year. Miami opened with losses to the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills before finally getting a win over the lowly Jets. The Dolphins lost to the Panthers, Chargers and Browns ahead of another win over the Falcons in game seven. In that victory 34-10 on the road, the Dolphins held the opposition to just 213 yards, 4.3 yards per play, 11 first downs and 2-of-11 on third-down tries. The offense put up 338 yards and 24 first downs on the other side as well.
In their latest appearance last Thursday versus the Baltimore Ravens, Miami was down 14-6 by the break. After 14 unanswered points in the third quarter the Dolphins had a 28-6 loss at home. QB Tua Tagovailoa finished 25-of-40 for 261 yards and a pick while De’Von Achane had 14 carries for 67 yards. Jaylen Waddle added six catches for 82 yards in the loss.
The Dolphins have won each of their last 10 November games at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Bills have lost three of their last five games as favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 November games at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as road favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Bills have lost the first half in three of their last four road games following a home win.
The Dolphins have lost each of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
The Bills have won each of their last seven games against the Dolphins.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Bills’ last five Week 10 games.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
Each of the Dolphins’ last seven Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Bills’ last four games as favorites in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
I’ll probably just stick with the Bills here. Buffalo played a pretty good overall game versus the Chiefs this past weekend, posting 404 yards with 23 first downs and a nice 7-of-12 on third-down tires. The Bills defense held KC to just 16 first downs and 3-of-13 on third-down conversions on the other side in a nice effort. That makes 28 or more points in consecutive games for the Bills (both wins) following fewer than 21 in consecutive games (both losses). Buffalo shouldn’t have a ton of trouble scoring here either, even in a road outing.
As for Miami, they didn’t play terribly on defense versus Baltimore, giving up just 18 first downs and 5-of-13 on third-down conversions. The Dolphins offense had three turnovers and went just 2-of-12 on third downs themselves though, and it’s tough to win games with numbers like that. I don’t see Miami staying close in this one.
The Buffalo Bills recent form and player performance
The Miami Dolphins recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Buffalo Bills
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Dolphins
Recent betting trends in games played between the Bills and Dolphins
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Bills vs Dolphins game
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Bills hit the ground running this year with wins over the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Saints in their first four. Buffalo would then lose to the Patriots and Falcons in consecutive games before another win over the Carolina Panthers. In that 40-9 blowout on the road, Buffalo put up 410 yards, 245 rushing yards, 23 first downs and a nice 7-of-12 success rate on third-down conversions. The Bills defense gave up 244 yards on the other side with 19 first downs and three takeaways in the winning road effort.
Matched up against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, Buffalo held a 21-13 edge at halftime then added another TD in the third. The Chiefs scored eight unanswered points in the final frame but the Bills held on for the win 28-21. QB Josh Allen went 23-of-26 for 273 yards and a score while also scoring twice on the ground. James Cook had 27 carries for 114 yards and Dalton Kincaid added six catches for 101 yards and two scores.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
Over on the Dolphins’ side, they’ve had quite a struggle this year. Miami opened with losses to the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills before finally getting a win over the lowly Jets. The Dolphins lost to the Panthers, Chargers and Browns ahead of another win over the Falcons in game seven. In that victory 34-10 on the road, the Dolphins held the opposition to just 213 yards, 4.3 yards per play, 11 first downs and 2-of-11 on third-down tries. The offense put up 338 yards and 24 first downs on the other side as well.
In their latest appearance last Thursday versus the Baltimore Ravens, Miami was down 14-6 by the break. After 14 unanswered points in the third quarter the Dolphins had a 28-6 loss at home. QB Tua Tagovailoa finished 25-of-40 for 261 yards and a pick while De’Von Achane had 14 carries for 67 yards. Jaylen Waddle added six catches for 82 yards in the loss.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 10
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
The Dolphins have won each of their last 10 November games at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Bills have lost three of their last five games as favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 November games at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as road favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Bills have lost the first half in three of their last four road games following a home win.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
The Dolphins have lost each of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
The Bills have won each of their last seven games against the Dolphins.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Bills’ last five Week 10 games.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Dolphins’ last seven Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Bills’ last four games as favorites in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
I’ll probably just stick with the Bills here. Buffalo played a pretty good overall game versus the Chiefs this past weekend, posting 404 yards with 23 first downs and a nice 7-of-12 on third-down tires. The Bills defense held KC to just 16 first downs and 3-of-13 on third-down conversions on the other side in a nice effort. That makes 28 or more points in consecutive games for the Bills (both wins) following fewer than 21 in consecutive games (both losses). Buffalo shouldn’t have a ton of trouble scoring here either, even in a road outing.
As for Miami, they didn’t play terribly on defense versus Baltimore, giving up just 18 first downs and 5-of-13 on third-down conversions. The Dolphins offense had three turnovers and went just 2-of-12 on third downs themselves though, and it’s tough to win games with numbers like that. I don’t see Miami staying close in this one.