Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction 10/12/2026 Today’s NFL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Oct 4, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams
Team Records
3-1
2-2
Spread
+3 100
-3 -120
Moneyline
+145
-175
Total
Over 54.5 (-118)
Under 54.5 (-102)
Where
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
When
Monday, October 12, 2026
Time
08:15 PM EDT
TV
ESPN
The Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams meet in week 5 NFL action from SoFi Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams prediction.
Buffalo Bills Recap
The Buffalo Bills come into this game looking to bounce back from a 29-26 loss at the hands of New England last time out to sit at 3-1 this season. After this game, Buffalo will head on the road for a game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Bills Suffer First L Of Season
Josh Allen has thrown for 1,039 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 66.4% passing while James Cook III leads Buffalo in rushing with 421 yards and 3 touchdowns through 4 games this season. Josh Allen sits behind Cook III on the ground with 118 yards and 7 touchdowns. Dalton Kincaid leads the Bills in receiving with 270 yards and 15 catches along with a touchdown, while Keon Coleman trails with 217 yards and 14 catches along with a touchdown. On defense, Dorian Williams has a team-high 32 tackles while Buffalo’s defense as a whole has combined for 10 sacks and 2 interceptions through 4 games this season.
Los Angeles Rams Recap
The Los Angeles Rams come into this game looking to add on to their 24-20 win over the Eagles last time out to sit at 2-2 this season. After this game, the Rams will take on the Arizona Cardinals in a game at home.
Rams Alternate Wins & Losses In First 4 Games Of Season
Matthew Stafford has thrown for 1,189 yards, 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 61.1% passing while Kyren Williams leads Los Angeles in rushing with 294 yards and 3 touchdowns through 4 games this season. Blake Corum sits behind Williams on the ground with 162 yards. Davante Adams leads the Rams in receiving with 390 yards and 22 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Puka Nacua trails with 199 yards and 14 catches. On defense, Quentin Lake has a team-high 31 tackles while Los Angeles’s defense as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and 3 interceptions through 4 games this season.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Los Angeles Rams will win
The Rams have won each of their last six Monday games against teams that held a winning record.
The Bills have lost each of their last four road games without Dawson Knox.
The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last six Monday games against teams that held a winning record.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games without Dawson Knox.
The Rams have won the first quarter in five of their last six Monday games against teams that held a winning record.
The Rams have won the first half in eight of their last nine October games against AFC opponents.
The Rams have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 games as favorites following a win.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
The Rams have lost each of their last six Week 5 home games.
The road team has won each of the Rams’ last six Week 5 games.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Rams’ last seven Week 5 games.
The Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Week 5 home games.
The Bills have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as underdogs.
The Rams have lost the first half in each of their last five October games against AFC East opponents.
The Bills have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games as underdogs against NFC West opponents.
Total Points Facts
Nine of the Bills’ last 10 October games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
Seven of the Rams’ last eight Monday games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Facts
Kyren Williams has scored the last touchdown in each of his three previous October appearances with the Rams as home favorites.
Kyren Williams has scored the first touchdown in three of his four previous October appearances against AFC opponents.
Kyren Williams has scored two touchdowns in three of the Rams’ last four games as favorites against teams that held a winning record.
Puka Nacua has recorded 98+ receiving yards in each of his six previous home appearances against AFC opponents.
Matthew Stafford has recorded 286+ passing yards in each of his last four Monday regular season home appearances.
Blake Corum has recorded 48+ rushing yards in each of the Rams’ last six games played on the West Coast.
Matthew Stafford has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Rams’ last seven games as favorites with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight October appearances.
Blake Corum has recorded 61+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Rams’ last six games played on the West Coast.
Heading into Week 5, Matthew Stafford has recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game this season (4 vs Giants, Week 2).
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in each of the Bills’ last five games as underdogs with a total points line of at least 50.0.
James Cook has recorded 95+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of the Bills’ last eight regular season games as underdogs.
Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in 17 of the Bills’ last 18 road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
James Cook has recorded 82+ rushing yards in each of his last four October road appearances.
Dawson Knox has recorded 12+ receiving yards in nine of the Bills’ last 10 games following a loss.
Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last six games as underdogs with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Josh Allen has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Bills’ last seven road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Heading into Week 5, Gregory Rousseau ranks 1st in the NFL in sacks (6.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Rams – two different players have recorded 70+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
Rams – six different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
Bills – four different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
Bills – three different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams Prediction
I’m on the Rams here. The Bills defense took a couple of key injuries on that side of the ball and haven’t been good enough for me to think they’ll be able to slow the Rams down here. There’s only so much that Josh Allen can do on his own and I think Los Angeles takes care of business at home in this one. Give me the Rams.
