| MATCHUP | Buffalo Bills | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Spread | -6 -105 | +6 -115 |
| Moneyline | -278 | +225 |
| Total | Over 43.5 (-115) | Under 43.5 (-105) |
| Where | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX | |
| When | Thursday, November 20, 2025 | |
| Time | 08:15 PM EST | |
| TV | Prime Video | |
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills lost to the Dolphins, beat the Buccaneers, and they play the Steelers next. The Bills have split their last 6 games. Josh Allen is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 2,456 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have combined for 902 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, while Keon Coleman has 32 receptions.
The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 147.6 yards per contest, and James Cook leads the way with 968 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 22.9 points and 322.7 yards per game. Cole Bishop leads the Buffalo Bills with 54 tackles, Joey Bosa has 4 sacks and Maxwell Hairston has 2 interceptions.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans beat the Jaguars and Titans, and play the Colts next. The Houston Texans have won 3 of their last 4 games. C.J. Stroud is completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,702 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz have combined for 1,131 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Xavier Hutchinson has 24 receptions.
The Houston Texans ground game is averaging 107.6 yards per contest, and Nick Chubb leads the way with 419 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Houston is allowing 16.3 points and 258.1 yards per game. Azeez Al-Shaair leads the Houston Texans with 65 tackles, Danielle Hunter has 9 sacks and Jalen Pitre has 3 interceptions.
Why the Houston Texans will win
- The Texans have won each of their last six games following a Division game.
- The Bills have lost three of their last four games as road favorites following a win.
- The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last four home games following a Division game.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games against AFC South opponents.
- The Bills have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games as favorites following a win.
- The Bills have lost the first half in four of their last five road games following a home win.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
- The Bills have won each of their last six Thursday road games.
- The Texans have lost each of their last four Week 12 games against AFC opponents.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Week 12 games against AFC opponents.
- The Bills have covered the spread in five of their last six Thursday road games.
- The Bills have won the first quarter in six of their last seven Week 12 games against AFC opponents.
- The Texans have lost the first half in each of their last three Week 12 games.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Bills’ last nine Thursday road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Texans’ last four November games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- Nick Chubb has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances in home night games against teams that held a winning record.
- Nick Chubb has recorded 22+ rushing yards in each of his last 33 home appearances against AFC opponents.
- Christian Kirk has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of his last 25 regular season appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Christian Kirk has recorded 25+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 25 regular season appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Heading into Week 12, Derek Stingley Jr. ranks T2nd in the AFC for interceptions (3) this season.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in five of the Bills’ last six games against teams on a winning streak.
- Josh Allen has recorded 231+ passing yards in 12 of the Bills’ last 13 November road games.
- James Cook has recorded 80+ rushing yards in five of the Bills’ last six road games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Dawson Knox has recorded 37+ receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last three November games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- James Cook has recorded 95+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Bills’ last four Thursday games.
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last 10 games as favorites against teams on a winning streak.
- Josh Allen has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Bills’ last 10 regular season games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
- Heading into Week 12, James Cook is the only player in the NFL to record 100+ rushing yards in three or more consecutive games this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 12, the Texans rank 32nd in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (68.6) this season.
- Heading into Week 12, the Texans have overturned the equal largest deficit to win a game this season – 19 points vs Jaguars.
- Heading into Week 12, the Bills have recorded the equal-most wins by a margin of 10+ points this season (5).
- Heading into Week 12, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in Q3 points per game (7.5) this season.
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Prediction
The Bills are going to be favored because they’ve been the more trustworthy team overall, but they’ve shown some chinks in the armor lately with losses in 3 of their last 6 games. You can move the ball against this Bills defense, which has allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back games. The Texans are starting to finish games, and they’re led by arguably the best defense in the league. Short week, home field, this is a lot of points to throw in the Texans direction. The Texans have covered 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog, and 4 of those covers were outright wins. Give me the points.