| MATCHUP | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 12-3 | 6-9 |
| Spread | -13.5 -108 | +13.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | -1100 | +700 |
| Total | Over 36.5 (-108) | Under 36.5 (-112) |
| Where | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO | |
| When | Thursday, December 25, 2025 | |
| Time | 08:15 PM EST | |
| TV | Prime Video | |
Denver Broncos Betting Preview
The Denver Broncos are 12-3 this season after they lost to Jacksonville by a score of 34-20 in their last game. Denver trailed 17-10 at halftime, but was tied at 17 in the third, before allowing the next 17 points for the loss. The Broncos out gained Jacksonville by a total of 445-346, went 5-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Bo Nix went 28-47 for 352 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while RJ Harvey rushed seven times for 50 yards and one score. Courtland Sutton led the receivers with six catches for 86 yards and one touchdown in the loss.Prior to that game, Denver defeated the Packers by a score of 34-26 and the Raiders by a score of 24-17. The Broncos have won 11 of their last 12 games and they are currently first in the AFC West standings. Denver has scored 24.1 points per game with 233.9 passing yards and 118.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.7 points against per game this season. Bo Nix has thrown for 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while Courtland Sutton has 69 receptions for 972 yards and seven scores this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-9 this year after they lost to Tennessee by a score of 26-9 in their last game. Kansas City trailed 9-6 at halftime and 16-9 after the third, but they were outscored 10-0 in the fourth in the loss. The Chiefs were out gained by a total of 376-133, went 1-9 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Chris Oladokun went 11-16 for 111 yards, while Isiah Pacheco rushed eight times for 34 yards. Xavier Worthy led the receivers with two catches for 41 yards in the loss.Prior to that game, Kansas City lost to the Chargers by a score of 16-13 and the Texans by a score of 20-10. The Chiefs have lost six of their last seven games and they are currently third in the AFC West standings. Kansas City has scored 22.5 points per game with 233.2 passing yards and 109.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.6 points against per game this season. Mahomes and Minshew are injured, so we will see Chris Oladokun at quarterback, while Travis Kelce has caught 68 passes for 803 yards and five scores this year.
Why the Denver Broncos will win
- The Broncos have won each of their last 11 games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
- The Chiefs have lost each of their last four games without Dameon Pierce.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in each of their last five games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs have lost the first half in three of their last four games as home underdogs against AFC West opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Chiefs’ last eight home games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of the Broncos’ last 10 games in December have gone OVER the total points line.
- Three of the last four Thursday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
- Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC West opponents.
- Kareem Hunt has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of his 11 previous regular season appearances with the Chiefs as underdogs.
- Kareem Hunt has recorded 14+ receiving yards in six of his seven previous Thursday appearances.
- Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 11 previous regular season appearances with the Chiefs as underdogs.
- Heading into Week 17, Harrison Butker ranks T6th in the NFL in made field goals (27) this season.
Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts
- Bo Nix has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Broncos’ last five December games.
- Bo Nix has recorded 307+ passing yards in three of the Broncos’ last four games as favorites following a loss.
- Evan Engram has recorded 28+ receiving yards in 16 of his last 18 appearances following a loss.
- RJ Harvey has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Broncos’ last four games.
- Bo Nix has recorded 15+ rushing yards in four of the Broncos’ last five December games against AFC opponents.
- Marvin Mims Jr. has recorded 24+ rushing and receiving yards in three of his last four appearances with the Broncos as favorites against AFC West opponents.
- John Franklin-Myers has recorded the equal-most defensive targets of any player (2) yet to allow a completion this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 17, the Chiefs have suffered the most losses when leading after Q1 this season (7).
- Heading into Week 17, the Chiefs have suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 10 points or less this season (8).
- Heading into Week 17, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in 3rd down percentage against (33.5%) this season.
- Heading into Week 17, the Broncos have recorded the most wins when trailing at HT this season (8).
Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction
Denver comes into this matchup looking to bounce back from that loss to Jacksonville last week, as they continue to push for the first seed in the AFC. The Broncos are 5-2 on the road this year and they have been elite at finding ways to win, even when they play poorly. Kansas City hasn’t had a season like this in a decade and after last week’s loss to Tennessee, I think it is fair to question their motivation. I am definitely worried about laying this many points with a Broncos team that has been in a bunch of close games, but I can’t back KC with Oladokun at quarterback. Take Denver to cover on the road.David Racey is 101-79 (56%) in the NFL this season and is one of the top NFL cappers on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!