Bills vs Steelers Prediction 11/30/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

David Racey

46 minutes ago

Nov 23, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) rushes the ball against the Chicago Bears during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Buffalo Bills	Pittsburgh Steelers
Team Records	7-4	6-5
Spread	-3.5 -110	+3.5 -110
Moneyline	-185	+154
Total	Over 47.5 (-112)	Under 47.5 (-108)
Where	Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
When	Sunday, November 30, 2025
Time	04:25 PM EST
TV	CBS

In this article we will formulate a Bills vs Steelers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, November 30th at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 13 matchup.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 7-4 this season after they lost to Houston by a score of 23-19 in their last game. Buffalo trailed 20-16 at halftime and only managed three points in the second half in the loss. The Bills out gained Houston by a total of 326-261, went 5-16 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-0 in the game. Josh Allen went 24-34 for 253 yards and two interceptions, while James Cook III rushed 17 times for 116 yards and one score. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with eight catches for 110 yards in the loss.

Prior to that game, Buffalo defeated Tampa Bay by a score of 44-32, but lost to Miami by a score of 30-13 before that. The Bills have lost two of their last three games and they are currently second in the AFC East standings. Buffalo has scored 28.3 points per game with 234.6 passing yards and 147.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 22.9 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 2,709 yards, 18 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while James Cook III has rushed for 1,084 yards and eight scores on 199 carries this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-5 this year after they lost to Chicago by a score of 31-28 in their last game. Pittsburgh led 21-17 at halftime, but they allowed the first 14 points in the second half for the loss. The Steelers out gained Chicago by a total of 345-328, went 8-14 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at two in the game. Mason Rudolph went 24-31 for 171 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Kenneth Gainwell rushed 10 times for 92 yards. Calvin Austin III led the receivers with four receptions for 36 yards in the loss.

Prior to that game, Pittsburgh defeated the Bengals by a score of 34-12, but lost to the Chargers by a score of 25-10 before that. The Steelers have alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they are currently tied for first in the AFC North standings. Pittsburgh has scored 24.9 points per game with 195.1 passing yards and 97.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.9 points against per game this season. Aaron Rodgers is questionable for this game with an injury, so we may see Mason Rudolph once again, while Jaylen Warren has rushed 141 times for 604 yards and three scores this year.

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

The underdogs have won six of the Steelers’ last seven Week 13 games.
The Bills have lost three of their last four games as road favorites.
The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Steelers’ last eight Week 13 games.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven road games against AFC North opponents.
The home team has won the first quarter in each of the last three games between the Bills and Steelers.
The Bills have lost the first half in each of their five previous November road games against AFC North opponents.

Total Points Facts

Eight of the Steelers’ last nine home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Bills’ last five road games against AFC North opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

Aaron Rodgers has recorded 209+ passing yards in 11 of his last 13 Week 13 appearances.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 20+ completions in 12 of his last 13 Week 13 appearances.
D.K. Metcalf has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
Jaylen Warren has recorded 62+ rushing yards in four of the Steelers’ last five Sunday games.
Jonnu Smith has recorded 23+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances against AFC East opponents.
Jonnu Smith has recorded 21+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC opponents.
Derrick Harmon has two sacks through his first five career games – most by any player since Jalen Carter, (2023).

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last six November road games.
Josh Allen has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Bills’ last six November games against AFC opponents.
James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
James Cook has recorded 80+ rushing yards in six of the Bills’ last seven road games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
James Cook has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances following a loss.
James Cook has scored two or more touchdowns in five of the Bills’ last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
Khalil Shakir has recorded 43+ receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last seven November games against AFC opponents.
Heading into Week 13, Josh Allen is the only player to have recorded 10+ total touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. (including 2025).

Matchup/League Facts

Steelers – seven different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 13.
Steelers – four different players have recorded 2.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 13.
Heading into Week 13, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (168.2) this season.
Heading into Week 13, the Bills rank 32nd in the NFL in average punt return (5.2 yards) this season.

Bills vs Steelers Prediction

Both of these teams come into this matchup trying to bounce back from a loss in their last game, but Pittsburgh will be at home. The Steelers have scored at least 25 points in four of their last five games, but their defense has been an issue, as they have allowed 25+ in three of their last five. Buffalo has dropped two of their last three games and their offensive line did not play well last time out in Houston. I think both of these teams have some major problems they need to address, but I am backing Pittsburgh with the points at home, as Josh Allen has no time to throw in the pocket.

David Racey is 70-48 (60%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #2 on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!