Buffalo (4-1) vs Atlanta (2-2)
October 13, 2025 at 07:15 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Atlanta +4 — Over/Under: +50
In this article we will formulate a Bills vs Falcons prediction for this NFL game on Monday, October 13th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 6 matchup.
Prior to that loss, Buffalo started the season with four wins against the Saints, Dolphins, Jets, and Ravens. The Bills are averaging 30.6 points per game with 241.4 passing yards and 154.4 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 22.6 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has completed 70.4% of his passes for 1,217 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Dalton Kincaid has 20 receptions for 287 yards and three scores. James Cook has led the rushing attack with 90 carries for 450 yards and five touchdowns this year.
Prior to that victory, the Falcons lost to Carolina, beat Minnesota, and lost to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is averaging 19.0 points per game with 226.3 passing yards and 136.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 21.5 points against per game this season. Michael Penix Jr has completed 62.4% of his passes for 918 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Bijan Robinson has caught 18 passes for 270 yards and one touchdown. Robinson is also the leading rusher for Atlanta with 64 carries for 314 yards and one score this season.
The Bills have won eight of their last nine October games against NFC opponents.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs following a win.
The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four games following a loss.
The Bills have won the first half in five of their last six Monday games.
The Falcons have lost the first quarter in seven of their last nine Week 6 games against AFC opponents.
Each of the Bills’ last five games as road favorites following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last five games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 298+ passing yards in each of the Falcons’ last three home games.
Kyle Pitts has recorded 41+ receiving yards in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games following a home win.
Bijan Robinson has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last five games.
Tyler Allgeier has recorded 32+ rushing yards in six of the Falcons’ last seven games as home underdogs.
Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in 10 of his last 11 October home appearances.
Heading into Week 6, Bijan Robinson is one of only two players in the NFL to record 250 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards this season.
James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Bills’ last nine regular season games.
Josh Allen has recorded 43+ rushing yards in seven of the Bills’ last eight road games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in five of the Bills’ last six October games as favorites.
Josh Palmer has recorded 24+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 October appearances with his team as a favorite.
Curtis Samuel has recorded 22+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances against NFC opponents.
Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in five of the Bills’ last six October games as favorites.
Heading into Week 6, Joey Bosa ranks 1st in the NFL in quarterback hurries (8) this season.
Heading into Week 6, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (20.8 yards) this season.
Heading into Week 6, the Bills rank 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (41.2) this season.
Heading into Week 6, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in time of possession per game (34:10) this season.
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Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this year after they lost to New England by a score of 23-20 last week. Buffalo trailed 6-3 at halftime and 20-10 in the fourth quarter, but they were able to tie the game, before losing on a late field goal. The Bills out gained NE by a total of 363-338, went 5-9 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 3-1 in the game. Josh Allen went 22-31 for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing nine times for 53 yards. Dalton Kincaid was the leading receiver with six receptions for 108 yards in the game. The Buffalo defense recorded four sacks and six tackles for loss in the defeat.Prior to that loss, Buffalo started the season with four wins against the Saints, Dolphins, Jets, and Ravens. The Bills are averaging 30.6 points per game with 241.4 passing yards and 154.4 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 22.6 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has completed 70.4% of his passes for 1,217 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Dalton Kincaid has 20 receptions for 287 yards and three scores. James Cook has led the rushing attack with 90 carries for 450 yards and five touchdowns this year.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
The Atlanta Falcons are 2-2 this season after they defeated Washington by a score of 34-27 in their last game. Atlanta led 17-10 at halftime and 31-16 in the fourth, but had to hold off Washington in the closing minutes for the win. The Falcons out gained Washington by a total of 435-294, went 6-12 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Michael Penix Jr went 20-26 for 313 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Bijan Robinson rushed 17 times for 75 yards and one score. Drake London led the receivers with eight receptions for 110 yards and one touchdown in the win. The Atlanta defense recorded two sacks and four tackles for loss in the game.Prior to that victory, the Falcons lost to Carolina, beat Minnesota, and lost to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is averaging 19.0 points per game with 226.3 passing yards and 136.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 21.5 points against per game this season. Michael Penix Jr has completed 62.4% of his passes for 918 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Bijan Robinson has caught 18 passes for 270 yards and one touchdown. Robinson is also the leading rusher for Atlanta with 64 carries for 314 yards and one score this season.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
The Falcons have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs following a win.The Bills have won eight of their last nine October games against NFC opponents.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs following a win.
The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four games following a loss.
The Bills have won the first half in five of their last six Monday games.
The Falcons have lost the first quarter in seven of their last nine Week 6 games against AFC opponents.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Falcons’ last seven games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.Each of the Bills’ last five games as road favorites following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in three of the Falcons’ last four games following a win.Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last five games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 298+ passing yards in each of the Falcons’ last three home games.
Kyle Pitts has recorded 41+ receiving yards in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games following a home win.
Bijan Robinson has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last five games.
Tyler Allgeier has recorded 32+ rushing yards in six of the Falcons’ last seven games as home underdogs.
Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in 10 of his last 11 October home appearances.
Heading into Week 6, Bijan Robinson is one of only two players in the NFL to record 250 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards this season.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
Josh Allen has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four games against NFC opponents.James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Bills’ last nine regular season games.
Josh Allen has recorded 43+ rushing yards in seven of the Bills’ last eight road games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in five of the Bills’ last six October games as favorites.
Josh Palmer has recorded 24+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 October appearances with his team as a favorite.
Curtis Samuel has recorded 22+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances against NFC opponents.
Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in five of the Bills’ last six October games as favorites.
Heading into Week 6, Joey Bosa ranks 1st in the NFL in quarterback hurries (8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Heading into Week 6, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (135.0) this season.Heading into Week 6, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (20.8 yards) this season.
Heading into Week 6, the Bills rank 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (41.2) this season.
Heading into Week 6, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in time of possession per game (34:10) this season.
Bills vs Falcons Prediction
Buffalo finally lost their first game of the season last week, as they came out flat and battled some turnover issues. The Bills are still one of the best teams in the NFL and they have scored 30 or more points in four of their first five games. Atlanta is 2-2 to start the year and while they did beat Washington last time out, they almost blew a big lead against a backup quarterback. We know Robinson is one of the best playmakers in the NFL, but I am not sold on this Atlanta defense against a red hot Buffalo offense. Take the Bills to cover on the road.David Racey is 31-17 (65%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #1 on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!