Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction 1/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Andrew Jett

13 hours ago

Dec 21, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; A Baltimore Ravens cheerleader performs during the second half of the game against the New England Patriots at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh Steelers
Team Records	8-8	9-7
Spread	-3.5 -105	+3.5 -115
Moneyline	-180	+150
Total	Over 40.5 (-115)	Under 40.5 (-105)
Where	Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
When	Sunday, January 4, 2026
Time	08:20 PM EST
TV	NBC

The Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers meet Sunday in NFL action from Acrisure Stadium. Here’s a Ravens vs Steelers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Ravens vs Steelers pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

The Ravens limped into the bye week this year with a 1-5 record featuring a lone win over the Browns in Week 2. Baltimore beat the Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns and Jets from there ahead of a 1-3 stretch. The lone win in that quartet was over the Bengals; otherwise it was losses to the Bengals, Steelers and Patriots for a 7-8 run across the first 15 games of the year.
In the Packers game last weekend, the Ravens held a slim 27-24 lead going into the final quarter. Baltimore scored two unanswered touchdowns from there on the way to a 41-24 win. QB Tyler Huntley had a 16-of-20 line for 107 yards and a TD but Derrick Henry did most of the offensive work on 216 rush yards and four scores off 36 carries. Zay Flowers added four catches for 30 yards and a TD.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

Over on the Steelers’ side, they managed to go 4-1 over their first five games with a lone loss to the Seahawks. A 2-5 run came next with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Chargers, Bears and Bills. The next three were all wins however, as the Steelers took out the Ravens, Dolphins and Lions in succession. Over 15 games that would make for a 9-6 overall record.

Matched up against the Browns on Sunday, the Steelers were down 10-6 going into the final frame. Pittsburgh couldn’t score outside of the second quarter in an eventual 13-6 loss. QB Aaron Rodgers was 21-of-39 for 168 yards and Jaylen Warren had 12 carries for 64 yards. Leading team receiver Pat Freiermuth had three catches for 63 yards in the losing effort.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends: Week 18

Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win

The underdogs have won each of the last four games between the Ravens and Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.
The Ravens have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
The underdogs have covered the spread in eight of the last nine games between the Ravens and Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.
The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites without Tyler Huntley.
The Ravens have lost the first half in six of their last seven games at Acrisure Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
The Ravens have lost the first quarter in four of their last five January road games against AFC opponents.

Why the Baltimore Ravens will win

The Ravens have won seven of their last eight games without Mark Andrews.
The Steelers have lost each of their last three home games following a Division loss.
The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Ravens’ last nine games.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five January games as underdogs.
The Steelers have lost the first half in each of their last five January games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
The Ravens have won the first quarter in three of their last four games against the Steelers following a road win.

Total Points Facts

Each of the Ravens’ last five games without Isaiah Likely have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Steelers’ last five games without Cameron Heyward have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of the last five Sunday games at Acrisure Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts

Jaylen Warren has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Steelers’ last four Sunday games as underdogs.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 261+ passing yards in each of his last four January appearances with his team as an underdog.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 21+ completions in each of his last five January appearances with his team as an underdog.
Aaron Rodgers has recorded 11+ rushing yards in seven of his last nine January appearances with his team as an underdog.
Jaylen Warren has recorded 62+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Steelers’ last five games against AFC North opponents.
Jaylen Warren has recorded 16+ receiving yards in each of the Steelers’ last seven regular season games against the Ravens.
Jaylen Warren has the highest average yards after catch (10.9) of any qualified player this season.

Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Facts

Derrick Henry has scored two touchdowns in three of the Ravens’ last four games as favorites against teams that held a winning record.
Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in each of his six previous January appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
Derrick Henry has recorded 84+ rushing yards in seven of the Ravens’ last eight games as road favorites against AFC opponents.
Derrick Henry has recorded 84+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Ravens’ last nine games.
Zay Flowers has recorded 53+ receiving yards in each of the Ravens’ last 12 Sunday regular season games as favorites.
Heading into Week 18, Derrick Henry is the only player to have recorded 10+ total touchdowns in each of the last five seasons. (including 2025).

Matchup/League Facts

Steelers – 15 different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
Steelers – 11 different players have recorded one interception or more in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
Ravens – four different players have recorded 70+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
Heading into Week 18, the Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (157.8) this season.

Ravens vs Steelers Prediction

I might take a stab on the Ravens here, but you could call it either way. Baltimore posted a nice road win over a pretty good Packers team in their last outing, notching 414 yards with 307 rush yards, 5.6 yards per play, 30 first downs and most importantly a great 10-of-14 success rate on third downs. The Ravens have won two of the last three games, scoring 24 or more points in all three of those outings.

These teams last met up back on December 7 in a 27-22 road win for the Steelers. In that one Pittsburgh put up 318 yards with just 34 rush yards, 13 first downs and 6-of-14 on third-down tries. The Steelers defense gave up 420 yards on the other side with 22 first downs, 217 rush yards and 7-of-18 on third downs. This rematch should be another close one; I like the Ravens to get a bit of revenge on the road cover-wise but it’s a coin flip.