Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 10/11/2026 Today’s NFL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Oct 5, 2026; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) passes against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons
Team Records
3-1
2-2
Spread
+3 102
-3 -122
Moneyline
+150
-180
Total
Over 43.5 (-110)
Under 43.5 (-110)
Where
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
When
Sunday, October 11, 2026
Time
08:20 PM EDT
TV
NBC
The Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons meet in week 5 NFL action from Mercedes Benz Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction.
Baltimore Ravens Recap
The Baltimore Ravens come into this game looking to build on a 24-18 win over Tennessee last time out to sit at 3-1 this season. After this game, the Ravens will head on the road for a game against the Cleveland Browns.
Ravens Win Back-To-Back Games
Lamar Jackson has thrown for 967 yards, 6 touchdowns and an interception on 70.8% passing while Derrick Henry leads Baltimore in rushing with 374 yards and 7 touchdowns through 4 games this season. Lamar Jackson sits behind Henry on the ground with 144 yards. Zay Flowers leads the Ravens in receiving with 352 yards and 18 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Rashod Bateman trails with 171 yards and 11 catches along with a touchdown. On defense, Roquan Smith has a team-high 34 tackles while Baltimore’s defense as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and 2 interceptions through 4 games this season.
Atlanta Falcons Recap
The Atlanta Falcons come into this game looking to add on to their 45-24 win over the Saints last time out to sit at 2-2 this season. After this game, the Falcons will take on the Chicago Bears in a matchup at home.
Falcons Win Back-To-Back Games
Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 256 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 72.0% passing while Bijan Robinson leads Atlanta in rushing with 349 yards and 2 touchdowns through 3 games this season. Brian Robinson Jr. sits behind Bijan on the ground with 132 yards. Drake London leads the Falcons in receiving with 274 yards and 15 catches, while Bijan Robinson trails with 118 yards and 13 catches along with a touchdown. On defense, Jessie Bates III has a team-high 17 tackles while Atlanta’s defense as a whole has combined for 5 sacks and an interception through 3 games this season.
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Atlanta Falcons will win
The Falcons have won each of their last five home games following a win.
The Ravens have lost four of their last five games following a win.
The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games following a win.
The Falcons have covered the spread in four of their last five home games following a win.
The Falcons have won the first quarter in four of their last five home games against teams that held a winning record.
The favorites have won the first half in each of the Ravens’ last five games.
The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games following a win.
Why the Baltimore Ravens will win
The Ravens have won each of their last five games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
The Falcons have lost each of their last five games as favorites against AFC North opponents.
The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs before a Division game.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 games against AFC North opponents.
The Falcons have lost the first quarter in each of their last three October games as home favorites.
The Ravens have won the first half in each of their last six games.
The Ravens have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games following a win.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Ravens’ last six games as underdogs without Tyler Huntley have gone OVER the total points line.
Ten of the Falcons’ last 11 home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
Bijan Robinson has scored the first touchdown in three of the Falcons’ last four games following a win.
Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 20+ completions in four of his last five home appearances.
Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 250+ passing yards in four of his last five home appearances.
Bijan Robinson has recorded 147+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last four games following a road win.
Brian Robinson has recorded 36+ rushing yards in four of his last five October home appearances.
Kyle Pitts has recorded 35+ receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last 10 October games as favorites.
Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games following a win.
Heading into Week 5, Bijan Robinson has recorded the most rushing yards in a single game this season (194 vs Packers, Week 3).
Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Facts
Derrick Henry has scored the first touchdown in four of the Ravens’ last five games following a win.
Derrick Henry has recorded 18+ receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
Derrick Henry has recorded 102+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
Tyler Huntley has recorded 186+ passing yards in three of his last four appearances as a starter.
Tyler Huntley has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of his six previous Sunday appearances with the Ravens as underdogs.
Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in nine of the Ravens’ last 10 games following a home win.
Heading into Week 5, Derrick Henry ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (7) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Heading into Week 5, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (48.3) this season.
Heading into Week 5, the Falcons rank T1st in the NFL in Q3 win percentage (75.0) this season.
Heading into Week 5, the Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in Q1 points per game (8.8) this season.
Heading into Week 5, the Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in H1 points per game (21.5) this season.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
I’m on the Falcons here. I know Tyler Huntley is one of hte most experienced backups in the league, and backups have done well this season. However, this is a tough ask for Huntley as there’s only so much that Derrick Henry can do and this Falcons team is going to be a tough team to go score for score with. I think the Falcons stock is skyrocketing and I look for Atlanta to win this one by a touchdown. Give me Atlanta.
