Colts vs Falcons Prediction - NFL Picks 12/24/23

Atlanta Falcons (6-8) vs Indianapolis Colts (8-6)

Game Info: Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 -- Over/Under: 44.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Indianapolis Colts will play the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Indianapolis has won five of their last six games, while Atlanta is on a two game losing streak. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and the Colts vs Falcons prediction. 

Colts Preview

The Indianapolis Colts are 8-6 this season after they defeated Pittsburgh by a score of 30-13 in their last game. Indianapolis trailed 13-0 in the second quarter, but they scored the final 30 points in the game for the win. The Colts out gained Pittsburgh by a total of 372-216 and forced three turnovers in the game. Indianapolis lost to Cincinnati by a score of 34-14 in the game prior to Pittsburgh, but they won the previous four games against Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New England, and Carolina. The Colts offense is scoring 24.6 points per game with 224.9 passing yards per game and 114.7 rushing yards per game. Gardner Minshew has thrown for 2,739 yards, 14 touchdowns, and eight interceptions for the Colts this season. Zack Moss (questionable) has rushed for 764 yards and five touchdowns, while Josh Downs has caught 57 passes for 631 yards and two scores. Michael Pittman is the leading receiver, but he is questionable with a concussion. The Indianapolis defense is giving up 24.5 points against per game this year. 

Falcons Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are 6-8 this year after they lost to Carolina by a score of 9-7 in their last game. Atlanta led 7-3 at halftime, but was out scored 6-0 in the second half for the loss. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 283-204 and turned the ball over two times in the game. Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay by a score of 29-25 in the game before Carolina, but did defeat the Jets and Saints in the two games prior to that. The Atlanta offense is averaging 18.4 points per game with 200.8 passing yards per game and 126.4 rushing yards per game. Taylor Heinicke has thrown for 498 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception for the Falcons this season. Bijan Robinson has rushed for 801 yards and four scores, while Drake London has caught 58 passes for 769 yards and two touchdowns. The Atlanta defense is allowing 19.9 points against per game this season. 

Atlanta Falcons Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won each of the Falcons' last four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the Falcons' last 10 games.
  • The Falcons have won the first quarter in each of their last four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games as favorites following a loss.
  • The Falcons have won the first half in each of their last four games following a loss.

Indianapolis Colts Team Facts

  • The Colts have lost 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in eight of the Colts' last nine games.
  • The road team has won the first half in four of the Colts' last five Week 16 games.
  • The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last three December games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • Each of the Colts' last four road games in December have gone OVER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

  • Van Jefferson has recorded 14+ receiving yards in 12 of his last 13 regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
  • Tyler Allgeier has recorded 39+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons' last 15 Sunday games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
  • Desmond Ridder has recorded 237+ passing yards in each of his last four appearances with the Falcons as home favorites.
  • Desmond Ridder has scored a touchdown in three of his last four appearances with the Falcons as home favorites.
  • Desmond Ridder has recorded 15+ completions in each of his seven previous Sunday appearances with the Falcons as home favorites.
  • Jessie Bates III ranks 3rd in the NFL in interceptions (5) this season.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

  • Gardner Minshew II has thrown two or more touchdowns in three of his last four appearances in December.
  • Gardner Minshew II has recorded 226+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances with his team as a road underdog.
  • Anthony Richardson has scored at least one touchdown in three of his four previous Sunday appearances with the Colts as underdogs.
  • KJ Hamler has recorded 41+ receiving yards in three of his four previous road appearances against NFC opponents.
  • Julian Blackmon is just three away from 10 career interceptions.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Falcons rank 30th in the NFL in Q3 points per game this season (2.7).
  • The Falcons rank T3rd in the NFL in Q4 win percentage this season (57.1).
  • The Colts rank T3rd in the NFL in interceptions this season (15).
  • The Colts rank 3rd in the NFL in forced fumbles this season (16).

Colts vs Falcons Betting Prediction

These two teams come into this matchup trending in two different directions, but both are in the playoff race. Indianapolis has played very well over the last six games and they are 5-2 on the road this season. Atlanta has lost two games in a row, but they are only one game behind in the race for the NFC South. The Colts have scored at least 27 points in three of their last four games and I trust their offense a lot more than Atlanta’s. Give me the Colts on the road in this game. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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