Jets vs Dolphins Prediction - NFL Picks 12/17/23

Miami Dolphins (9-4) vs New York Jets (5-8)

Game Info: Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)

Betting Odds: Miami Dolphins -9.5 -- Over/Under: 37 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New York Jets will play the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. New York was able to snap their losing streak last week, while Miami has won three of their last four games. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and the Jets vs Dolphins prediction.

Jets Preview

The New York Jets are 5-8 this year after they defeated Houston by a score of 30-6 in their last game. New York was tied at 0 at the half, but they erupted for 30 points in the second half for the win. The Jets out gained Houston by a total of 347-135 and held Houston to only 1-12 on third down. New York had lost their previous five games against the Falcons, Dolphins, Bills, Raiders, and Chargers. The New York offense is scoring 15.5 points per game with 176.9 passing yards per game and 89.8 rushing yards per game. Zach Wilson has thrown for 2,245 yards, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions for the Jets this season. Breece Hall has rushed for 625 yards and two touchdowns, while Garrett Wilson has caught 76 passes for 853 yards and three scores. The New York defense is allowing 19.8 points against per game this season. 

Dolphins Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 9-4 this season after they lost to Tennessee by a score of 28-27 in their last game. Miami led 27-13 in the fourth quarter, but they allowed 15 points in the final 2:40 for the loss. The Dolphins were out gained by a total of 403-366 and forced three turnovers in the game. Miami had won their previous three games against the Commanders, Jets, and Raiders. The Miami offense is averaging 31.6 points per game with 279.2 passing yards per game and 144.5 rushing yards per game. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 3,697 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions for the Dolphins this year. Raheem Mostert (questionable) has rushed for 924 yards and 16 scores, while Tyreek Hill (questionable) has caught 97 passes for 1,542 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Miami defense is giving up 22.6 points against per game this year. 

Miami Dolphins Team Facts

  • The Dolphins have won each of their last seven games against the Jets at Hard Rock Stadium.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last six Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Week 15 games as favorites.
  • The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games as favorites.

New York Jets Team Facts

  • The Jets have lost each of their last 10 road games against AFC East opponents.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games in Florida.
  • The Jets have lost the first half in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Jets' last three Week 15 games.
  • Eight of the Jets' last nine games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

  • Jaylen Waddle has scored a touchdown in three of the Dolphins' last four Sunday home games.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Dolphins' last five Sunday home games.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 240+ passing yards in each of his last 14 appearances with the Dolphins as favorites on the East Coast.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. has recorded 23+ rushing yards in each of his last seven regular season appearances against AFC East opponents.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. has recorded 37+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven Sunday appearances with his team as a home favorite.
  • Robbie Chosen has recorded 61+ receiving yards in each of his four previous December appearances with his team as a home favorite.
  • Tua Tagovailoa ranks 1st in the AFC for passing yards (3697) this season.

New York Jets Player Prop Facts

  • Dalvin Cook has scored a touchdown in three of his last four December road appearances.
  • Dalvin Cook has recorded 23+ rushing yards in 19 of his 20 previous December appearances.
  • Dalvin Cook has recorded 36+ rushing and receiving yards in 19 of his 20 previous December appearances.
  • Allen Lazard has recorded 17+ receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 Sunday road appearances.
  • Greg Zuerlein ranks 3rd in the NFL in made field goals (27) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in red zone percentage this season (71.1%).
  • The Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in Q3 points per game this season (7.3).
  • The Jets rank 32nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage this season (24.6%).
  • The Jets rank 32nd in the NFL in red zone percentage this season (34.5%).

Jets vs Dolphins Betting Prediction

Miami comes into this game in first place in the AFC East, but they are coming off of a massive fourth quarter collapse against the Titans in their last game. The Dolphins have one of the best offensive attacks in the NFL and they have scored 27, 45, and 34 points in their last three games. New York was able to snap their losing streak against Houston last week and Zach Wilson actually looked very good under center. I think both teams are going to move the ball in this game and while we know Miami will get their points, I think the Jets will find the end zone a couple of times as well. Take the over here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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