Bills vs Chiefs Prediction - NFL Picks 12/10/23

Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) vs Buffalo Bills (6-6)

Game Info: Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 4:25 pm (GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium)

Betting Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 -- Over/Under: 48.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Buffalo has lost three of their last four games, while Kansas City has alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and the Bills vs Chiefs prediction. 

Bills Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 6-6 this year after they lost to Philadelphia by a score of 37-34 in overtime in their last game. Buffalo led 17-7 at the half and 31-28 in the fourth, but they allowed the Eagles to force overtime and allowed a touchdown in the extra period for the loss. The Bills out gained Philadelphia by a total of 505-378 and forced two turnovers in the game. Buffalo defeated the Jets by a score of 32-6 in the game before Philadelphia, but they lost to Denver and Cincinnati in the two games prior to that. The Buffalo offense is scoring 27.3 points per game with 260.9 passing yards per game and 122.3 rushing yards per game. Josh Allen has thrown for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions for the Bills this season. James Cook has rushed for 731 yards and one touchdown, while Stefon Diggs has caught 83 passes for 969 yards and eight scores. The Buffalo defense is allowing 18.9 points against per game this season. 

Chiefs Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-4 this season after they lost to Green Bay by a score of 27-19 in their last game. Kansas City cut the lead to 21-19 in the fourth quarter, but they couldn’t find any more points to end the game with the loss. The Chiefs were out gained by a total of 382-337 and turned the ball over one time in the game. Kansas City defeated the Raiders in the game prior to Green Bay, but lost to Philadelphia 21-17 in the game before that. The Chiefs offense is averaging 22.9 points per game with 252.7 passing yards per game and 109.9 rushing yards per game. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,127 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions for the Chiefs this season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 140 yards and one score, while Travis Kelce has caught 74 passes for 813 yards and five touchdowns. The Kansas City defense is giving up 17.3 points against per game this year. 

Kansas City Chiefs Team Facts

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 10 home games in December.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight December home games against AFC opponents.
  • The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight Sunday games as home favorites.
  • The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in each of their last three Sunday games as favorites.
  • The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last 11 games as home favorites.

Buffalo Bills Team Facts

  • The Bills have won each of their last six games in December.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The Bills have won the first quarter in six of their last eight games as underdogs against the Chiefs.
  • The Bills have won the first half in each of their last four December games against AFC opponents.
  • The Bills have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has recorded 28+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs' last six Sunday games as home favorites.
  • Travis Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Chiefs' last four games as home favorites against AFC East opponents.
  • Mike Edwards is just two away from 10 career interceptions.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

  • Gabriel Davis has recorded 56+ receiving yards in seven of the Bills' last eight games following a road loss.
  • Latavius Murray has recorded 24+ rushing yards in each of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog following a loss.
  • Latavius Murray has recorded 27+ rushing and receiving yards in 28 of his last 29 appearances against AFC West opponents.
  • Leonard Fournette has scored at least one touchdown in six of his last seven appearances against AFC opponents.
  • Terrel Bernard is one of only two players in the NFL to record 100+ tackles and 3+ interceptions this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Chiefs are one of only two teams in the NFL with 100% success rate on field goals this season.
  • The Chiefs rank 3rd in the NFL in points allowed per game this season (17.3).
  • The Bills rank T1st in the NFL in Q4 points per game this season (9.0).
  • The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.6).

Bills vs Chiefs Betting Prediction

Both of these teams have been playing some inconsistent football recently, but Kansas City has been the better team and will be at home for this game. The Chiefs are 4-2 at home, while Buffalo is only 1-4 on the road. The Bills have played decent football over the last five weeks, but have lost by margins of 6, 2, and 3 in the three losses. Buffalo is only a few plays away from having a much better record and I think they are going to finish the season with some better results. Kansas City has had their issues this season, but most of those problems have been on the road. If this game was in Buffalo, I would love the Bills, but I am going to side with Kansas City here. 

David’s Pick Chiefs ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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