Dolphins vs Commanders Prediction - NFL Picks 12/3/23

Washington Commanders (4-8) vs Miami Dolphins (8-3)

Game Info: Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:00 pm (FedEx Field)

Betting Odds: Washington Commanders +9.5 -- Over/Under: 49.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Dolphins will play the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. Miami has won three of their last four games, while Washington has dropped three games in a row. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and the Dolphins vs Commanders prediction. 

Dolphins Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 8-3 this season after they defeated the Jets by a score of 34-13 in their last game. Miami led 17-6 at halftime and they were able to add 17 more points in the second half for the win. The Dolphins out gained New York by a total of 395-159, but they did turn the ball over three times in the game. Miami defeated Las Vegas by a score of 20-13 in the game before New York, but they did lose 21-14 against Kansas City in the game before that. The Miami offense is averaging 30.8 points per game with 285.3 passing yards per game and 145.2 rushing yards per game. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 3,177 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions for the Dolphins this season. Raheem Mostert (questionable) has rushed for 785 yards and 13 scores, while Tyreek Hill has caught 88 passes for 1,324 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Miami defense is allowing 22.8 points against per game this season. 

Commanders Preview

The Washington Commanders are 4-8 this year after they lost to Dallas by a score of 45-10 in their last game. Washington played decently in the first half and only trailed 20-10 at halftime, but Dallas blew the doors off in the second half. The Commanders were out gained by a total of 431-376 and had three turnover on downs in the loss. Washington has also lost to the Giants and Seahawks during this losing streak. The Commanders offense is scoring 20.5 points per game with 247 passing yards per game and 96.8 rushing yards per game. Sam Howell has thrown for 3,339 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions for the Commanders this season. Brian Robinson Jr. has rushed for 611 yards and five touchdowns, while Terry McLaurin has caught 60 passes for 694 yards and two touchdowns. The Washington defense is giving up 29.2 points against per game this year. 

Washington Commanders Team Facts

  • The Commanders have lost each of their last eight December games at FedExField.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at FedExField.
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in each of their last three home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Commanders have lost the first half in seven of their last eight home games in December.
  • Each of the Commanders' last four home games in December have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Team Facts

  • The Dolphins have won each of their last eight games played as favorites on the East Coast.
  • The home team has covered the spread in each of the Dolphins' last seven Week 13 games.
  • The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in each of their last two Sunday games as favorites.
  • The favorites have won the first half in nine of the Dolphins' last 10 games.
  • Each of the Dolphins' last five Week 13 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

  • Jahan Dotson has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders' last three games played on the East Coast.
  • Sam Howell has thrown three or more touchdowns in three of the Commanders' last five games as underdogs.
  • Sam Howell has recorded 28+ completions in each of the Commanders' last four games following a loss.
  • Sam Howell has recorded 290+ passing yards in five of the Commanders' last six games as underdogs.
  • Brian Robinson has recorded 44+ rushing yards in each of his last nine Sunday appearances at FedExField.
  • Jamison Crowder has recorded 40+ receiving yards in each of his last six December appearances against AFC opponents.
  • Antonio Gibson has recorded 39+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 10 previous appearances with the Commanders as underdogs following a road loss.
  • Sam Howell ranks 1st in the NFC for passing yards (3339) this season.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

  • Jeff Wilson Jr. has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his five previous appearances with the Dolphins as favorites following a win.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. has recorded 36+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. has recorded 23+ rushing yards in each of his last 11 appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
  • Braxton Berrios ranks 2nd in the AFC for kick return yards (268) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Commanders rank 32nd in the NFL in H1 opponent points per game this season (14.8).
  • The Commanders rank 32nd in the NFL in H2 opponent points per game this season (14.1).
  • The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL to rank top 5 in both passing yards and rushing yards per game this season.
  • The Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in total punt yards this season (1411).

Dolphins vs Commanders Betting Prediction 

These two teams come into this game trending in opposite directions, but Washington will have the home field advantage here. Miami has won three of their last four games, but they are only 3-3 on the road this year. Washington is 1-4 at home and they have really struggled recently. The Commanders got blown out by Dallas on Thanksgiving and they lost to a very bad Giants team the week before that. This Washington defense is one of the worst in the NFL and I expect Miami to put up a ton of points here. Take the Dolphins to run away with this game. 

David’s Pick Dolphins -9.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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