Saints vs Falcons Prediction - NFL Picks 11/26/23

Atlanta Falcons (4-6) vs New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Game Info: Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Falcons +1.5 -- Over/Under: 41.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New Orleans Saints will play the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. New Orleans has won two of their last three games, while Atlanta has dropped three games in a row. Let's have a look at our Saints vs Falcons Prediction.

Saints Preview

The New Orleans Saints are 5-5 this year after they lost to Minnesota by a score of 27-19 in their last game. New Orleans trailed 24-3 at halftime, but they did fight back and had a couple of chances to tie the game late. The Saints were out gained by a total of 388-280 and turned the ball over two times in the game. New Orleans did defeat Chicago and Indianapolis in the two games prior to Minnesota. The New Orleans offense is scoring 21.4 points per game with 237.4 passing yards per game and 100 rushing yards per game. Derek Carr (questionable) has thrown for 2,231 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Saints this season. Alvin Kamara has rushed for 388 yards and two touchdowns, while Chris Olave has caught 56 passes for 657 yards and three scores. The New Orleans defense is allowing 19.8 points against per game this season.

Falcons Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-6 this season after they lost to Arizona by a score of 25-23 in their last game. Atlanta led 23-22 with 2:33 left in the game, but they allowed Arizona to march down the field and kick the winning field goal as time expired. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 352-254, but they did go 7-14 on third down in the game. Atlanta has also lost to Minnesota and Tennessee during this three game losing streak. The Atlanta offense is averaging 18.9 points per game with 204.9 passing yards per game and 130.4 rushing yards per game. Desmond Ridder has thrown for 1,740 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions for the Falcons this season. Bijan Robinson has rushed for 612 yards and two touchdowns, while Drake London has caught 40 passes for 474 yards and two scores. The Atlanta defense is giving up 21.7 points against per game this year.

Atlanta Falcons Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won each of the Falcons' last two games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Falcons have won the first quarter in three of their last four Sunday games as home underdogs.
  • The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in three of their last four Sunday games played on the East Coast.
  • The Falcons have lost the first half in four of their last five November games against NFC South opponents.

New Orleans Saints Team Facts

  • The favorites have won each of the Saints' last eight Week 12 games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
  • The Saints have won the first quarter in each of their last four road games against the Falcons.
  • The Saints have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five road games against the Falcons.
  • The Saints have lost the first half in three of their last four games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four Sunday appearances with the Falcons as home underdogs.
  • Desmond Ridder has recorded 237+ passing yards in each of his last four appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
  • Jonnu Smith has recorded 36+ receiving yards in each of the Falcons' last four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has recorded 41+ rushing yards in each of his last six appearances with the Falcons as underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • Bijan Robinson has recorded 80+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Falcons' last four home games against NFC opponents.
  • Jessie Bates III is just one away from 20 career interceptions (including playoffs).

New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts

  • Alvin Kamara has scored a touchdown in each of the Saints' last three November games against NFC South opponents.
  • Derek Carr has recorded 22+ completions in nine of his 11 previous appearances against NFC South opponents.
  • Jamaal Williams has recorded 30+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
  • Jameis Winston has recorded 269+ passing yards in each of his last four road appearances against the Falcons.
  • Michael Thomas has recorded 48+ receiving yards in 15 of his 16 previous road appearances against NFC South opponents.
  • Jamaal Williams has recorded 21+ rushing yards in each of his last 11 road appearances against division opponents.
  • Jameis Winston has thrown three or more touchdowns in six of his last eight appearances against the Falcons.
  • Rashid Shaheed ranks 2nd in the NFL in kick return yards (343) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Falcons rank 31st in the NFL in punt return yards per game this season (7.9).
  • The Falcons rank T30th in the NFL in H1 win percentage this season (20.0).
  • The Saints rank T30th in the NFL in forced fumbles this season (4).
  • The Saints rank 3rd in the NFL in average punt return this season (14.9 yards).

Saints vs Falcons Prediction Breakdown

New Orleans comes into this matchup with only a 5-5 record, but that is good enough for first place in the NFC South. Atlanta only trails New Orleans by one game in the standings, so this game is huge for both teams. Derek Carr is questionable for the Saints, but it sounds like he is trending towards playing, but his absence would be a huge loss for New Orleans. Atlanta is going back to Desmond Ridder at quarterback, which is not a good sign for that offense. I think we are going to see a low scoring slugfest in this game and I like the under. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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