Packers vs Lions Prediction - NFL Picks 11/23/23

Detroit Lions (8-2) vs Green Bay Packers (4-6)

Game Info: Thursday, November 23, 2023 at 12:30 pm (Ford Field)

Betting Odds: Detroit Lions -7.5 -- Over/Under: 46.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Green Bay Packers will play the Detroit Lions on Thursday afternoon at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Green Bay has won two of their last three games, while Detroit has only lost two games all season. 

Packers Preview

The Green Bay Packers are 4-6 this season after they defeated the LA Chargers by a score of 23-20 last week. Green Bay trailed 20-16 in the fourth quarter, but they scored with 2:33 left for the win. The Packers out gained LA by a total of 397-394 and forced one turnover in the game. Green Bay lost to Pittsburgh by a score of 23-19 in the game prior, but did defeat the Rams in the game before that. The Green Bay offense is scoring 20.2 points per game with 217.5 passing yards per game and 102.1 rushing yards per game. Jordan Love has thrown for 2,331 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions for the Packers this season. AJ Dillon (questionable) has rushed for 405 yards and one touchdown, while Jayden Reed has caught 32 passes for 463 yards and four scores. The Green Bay defense is allowing 20.2 points against per game this season.

Lions Preview

The Detroit Lions are 8-2 this year after they defeated the Chicago Bears by a score of 31-26 in their last game. Detroit trailed 26-14 in the fourth quarter, but they scored two touchdowns in the final 2:59 for the win. The Lions have only lost to Seattle and Baltimore so far this year, but their defense has struggled at times. The Detroit offense is averaging 27.2 points per game with 263 passing yards per game and 136.6 rushing yards per game. Jared Goff has thrown for 2,743 yards, 16 touchdowns, and eight interceptions for the Lions this year. David Montgomery has rushed for 577 yards and eight scores, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 73 passes for 898 yards and five touchdowns. The Detroit defense is giving up 22.9 points against per game this year.

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Detroit Lions Team Facts

  • The Lions have won each of their last nine November games as home favorites.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last six home games against the Packers.
  • The Lions have lost the first quarter in four of their last six games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
  • The favorites have won the first half in each of the Lions' last 12 games.
  • The Lions have scored the first touchdown in 12 of their last 13 games against the Packers.

Green Bay Packers Team Facts

  • The Packers have lost 12 of their last 13 road games in November.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight November games as road underdogs.
  • The Packers have won the first quarter in each of their last two Week 12 games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have lost the first half in each of their last five road games in November.
  • Each of the Packers' last four games as underdogs against the Lions have gone OVER the total points line.

Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts

  • David Montgomery has recorded 67+ rushing yards in six of his last seven appearances.
  • Jared Goff has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Lions' last four games following a win.
  • Kalif Raymond has recorded 17+ receiving yards in seven of the Lions' last eight home games against NFC opponents.
  • Jared Goff has thrown two or more touchdowns in 13 of the Lions' last 14 home games against NFC opponents.
  • David Montgomery has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against NFC opponents.
  • David Montgomery has recorded 74+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite following a win.
  • Teddy Bridgewater has recorded 258+ passing yards in three of his last four appearances against NFC North opponents.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs is the only player in the NFL to record 2,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards this season.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

  • Romeo Doubs has scored a touchdown in each of the Packers' last three games as underdogs.
  • Jordan Love has thrown three touchdowns in each of the Packers' last two games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • Jordan Love has recorded 228+ passing yards in each of the Packers' last four games against NFC opponents.
  • Jordan Love has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Packers' last five games.
  • Romeo Doubs ranks T3rd in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Lions rank 31st in the NFL in total punt yards this season (1355).
  • The Lions rank T2nd in the NFL in Q1 win percentage this season (70.0).
  • The Packers rank 1st in the NFL in Q3 win percentage this season (80.0).
  • The Packers rank 31st in the NFL in Q2 points per game this season (3.9).

Packers vs Lions Prediction Breakdown

Detroit comes into this game with a great record, but they played pretty poorly in their last game against Chicago. The Bears had a double-digit lead late in the fourth quarter, so Detroit was lucky to escape with a win. Green Bay has won two of their last three games and had a very nice fourth quarter comeback last week. Detroit won the first meeting between these two teams by a score of 34-20 and I expect another higher scoring game here. The Detroit defense has not been very good recently and I think the Packers will be able to move the ball. Take the over here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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