Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction - NFL Picks 11/23/23

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) vs Washington Commanders (4-7)

Game Info: Thursday, November 23, 2023 at 4:30 pm (AT&T Stadium)

Betting Odds: Dallas Cowboys -11 -- Over/Under: 49 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys face off on Thanksgiving Day in an NFL showdown at AT&T Stadium. Take a look at our Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction.

Which Sam Howell Will Show Up?

The Washington Commanders come into this game with a 4-7 record overall and they are coming off a terrible loss in the last game. Washington scored only 19 points and they ended up losing by 12 points. Sam Howell completed 31 of his 45 passes for 255 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Running Brian Robinson Jr had a strong game putting up 17 carries for 73 yards. He also caught seven passes for 58 yards. The Commanders are averaging 21.5 points, while their defense is giving up 27.7 points per game. The defense is ranked 32nd in the league. Antonio Gibson is dealing with a toe injury and he’s questionable for this game. 

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Commanders Betting Trends

  • The Commanders have won each of their last three Week 12 games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine Week 12 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in four of their last six games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in each of their last three games as underdogs.

Cowboys Offense Has Confidence

The Cowboys sit with a 7-3 record overall and the last two games the offense sure has been impressive. On Sunday, the Cowboys faced off against the Carolina Panthers and they were able to secure the 33-10 victory. Dak Prescott completed 25 of his 38 passes for 189 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Cowboys on the season is averaging 30.2 points while their defense is giving up 17.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 2nd, while the defense is ranked 5th. They are averaging 8.10 yards per game in the first quarter and that is top in the league. 

Cowboys Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys have won each of their last 12 home games.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Cowboys have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 games at AT&T Stadium.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in each of their last three Week 12 games as favorites.
  • The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last five games as favorites.

Shane’s Free Pick

The interceptions are a big concern for Sam Howelll, and it’s going to be what hurts him here. The Cowboys have done a good job of creating turnovers, and one of those is probably going to be returned for a touchdown. Prescott is going to have another big game here, and the Commanders just don’t have much of a chance to keep this game close. Back the Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread. 

Shane’s Pick Cowboys -11

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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