Broncos vs Bills Prediction - NFL Picks 11/13/23

Buffalo Bills (5-4) vs Denver Broncos (3-5)

Game Info: Monday, November 13, 2023 at 8:15 pm (Highmark Stadium)

Betting Odds: Buffalo Bills -7 -- Over/Under: 46.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Denver Broncos will play the Buffalo Bills on Monday night at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Denver has won two games in a row, while Buffalo has alternated losses and wins over their last five games. 

Broncos Preview

The Denver Broncos are 3-5 this season after they defeated the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 24-9 in their last game. Denver led 14-9 at halftime and was able to shut out Kansas City in the second half for the win. The Broncos were out gained by a total of 274-240 and forced five turnovers in the game. Denver defeated the Green Bay Packers by a score of 19-17 in the game prior to KC. The Denver offense is scoring 21.5 points per game with 185.4 passing yards per game and 116.8 rushing yards per game. Russell Wilson has thrown for 1,613 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Broncos this season. Javonte Williams has rushed for 357 yards, while Courtland Sutton has caught 33 passes for 380 yards and six scores. The Denver defense is giving up 28.3 points against per game this year. 

Bills Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 5-4 this year after they lost to the Cincinnati Bengals by a score of 24-18 in their last game. Buffalo trailed 21-7 at halftime and their comeback attempt came up just short in the fourth quarter. The Bills were out gained by a total of 397-317 and turned the ball over two times in the loss. Buffalo did defeat Tampa Bay by a score of 24-18 in the game prior. The Buffalo offense is averaging 26.7 points per game with 262.1 passing yards per game and 108.1 rushing yards per game. Josh Allen has thrown for 2,423 yards, 18 touchdowns, and nine interceptions for the Bills this season. James Cook has rushed for 506 yards and one touchdown, while Stefon Diggs has caught 70 passes for 834 yards and seven scores. The Buffalo defense is allowing 17.8 points against per game this season.

Buffalo Bills Team Facts

  • The Bills have won eight of their last nine games at Highmark Stadium.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Bills' last eight Week 10 games.
  • The Bills have lost the first quarter in each of their last three games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Bills have won the first half in each of their last five November games as favorites.
  • The Bills have scored the first touchdown in 14 of their last 17 games at Highmark Stadium.

Denver Broncos Team Facts

  • The Broncos have lost each of their last six Monday road games.
  • The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Week 10 games against AFC opponents.
  • The home team has won the first half in 10 of the Broncos' last 11 games.
  • The Broncos have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as underdogs following a home win.
  • Each of the Broncos' last seven November games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

  • Latavius Murray has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four November appearances against AFC West opponents.
  • Latavius Murray has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC West opponents.
  • James Cook has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of the Bills' last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • Latavius Murray has recorded 22+ rushing yards in 28 of his 30 previous appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
  • James Cook has recorded 77+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Bills' last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • Taylor Rapp is just one away from 10 career interceptions (including playoffs).

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

  • Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in five of the Broncos' last six games.
  • Russell Wilson has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of his five previous November appearances against AFC East opponents.
  • Russell Wilson has recorded 306+ passing yards in each of his last five road appearances against AFC East opponents.
  • Samaje Perine has recorded 15+ receiving yards in nine of his last 10 regular season appearances.
  • Samaje Perine has recorded 19+ rushing yards in four of his last five November road appearances.
  • Justin Simmons is just one away from 30 career interceptions (including playoffs).

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.3).
  • The Bills rank 31st in the NFL in total punt yards this season (1105).
  • The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in average kickoff return (34.0 yards) this season.
  • The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in average punt return this season (20.3 yards).


Buffalo comes into this game struggling in their last five games, where they are 2-3. The Bills will be at home, where they play their best football, but will play a Denver team that has won two games in a row. The bad news for Denver is that they will be on the road for this game, as their previous two wins came at home. This is an interesting game, as both teams have been inconsistent this season, but I am going with Denver and the points here. Buffalo hasn’t won by more than seven points in five straight games and Denver is coming off of their bye week with some momentum. Take the Broncos here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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