Commanders vs Patriots Prediction - NFL Picks 11/5/23

New England Patriots (2-6) vs Washington Commanders (3-5)

Game Info: Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

Betting Odds: New England Patriots -2.5 -- Over/Under: 41 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots face off on Sunday in an NFL showdown at Gillette Stadium.

Rumors Swirling Around the Patriots

There are many rumors swirling around the Patriots right now, but this team is just trying to focus on this season for now. The Patriots sit with a 2-6 record overall and they are coming off another loss in the last game. The Patriots scored 17 points against the Miami Dolphins, but the defense gave up 31 points. Mac Jones completed 19 of his 29 passes for 161 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The Patriots are averaging 14.8 points while their defense is giving up 26 points per game. The offense is ranked 31st and they are going to need to find a way to get the offense going here. 

Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Patriots have won each of their last nine November games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last six November games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Sunday games as home favorites.
  • The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last five Week 9 home games.

Commanders Can’t Close out Games

The Commanders sit with a 3-5 record overall but they easily could be 5-3 if they would just close out games. In the last game against the Eagles they should have won, but they gave up 21 points in the 4th quarter and ended up losing by seven. Even though they lost, the Commanders look like they have a quarterback in Sam Howell. He completed 39 of his 52 passes for 397 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. The Commanders are averaging 21.8 points while their defense is giving up 28.5 points per game. 

Commanders Betting Trends

  • The Commanders have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs following a Division loss.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games in November.
  • The Commanders have lost the first half in each of their last five November games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • The Commanders have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Each of the Commanders' last four November games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Shane’s Free Pick

The Commanders are going to keep this game close and I think they can win this game outright. Sam Howell has a ton of confidence heading into this game and he’s going to have a big game here. Look for Washington to score at least 21 points here, and Mac Jones is going to have trouble getting the Patriots here. The Commanders are going to cover the spread and I am also throwing a few dollars on the outright win. 

Shane’s Pick Washington +2.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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