Patriots at Dolphins Prediction - NFL Picks 10/29/23

Miami Dolphins (5-2) vs New England Patriots (2-5)

Game Info: Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)

Betting Odds: Miami Dolphins -9.5 -- Over/Under: 47 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New England Patriots will make the trip down to South Beach to face the Miami Dolphins in divisional action this weekend from Hard Rock Stadium on CBS.

New England Patriots Preview

New England moved to 2-5 after defeating Buffalo at home to 1-5 after losing to Las Vegas on the road by four, 21-17. The Patriots struggled again last week, and they’ll look to avoid a fourth straight loss here against Buffalo. The New England offense is scoring 14.4 ppg, while passing for 214.5 ypg, rushing for 83.7 ypg, and converting 35.2% of their third downs.

Patriots Player Props

Mac Jones bounced back in a big way against Buffalo, going a sharp 25/30 for 272 yards, with a pair of touchdown tosses. The former Bama QB looked like the first round pick New England spent on him, and he’ll have to bring the same energy here facing Miami. Jones has thrown for 1,480 yards with seven touchdowns to seven interceptions thru seven starts. 

Rhamondre Stevenson gained 75 yards from scrimmage in the win over the Bills, and he leads the Pats with 268 yards on 87 carries, with 23 catches.

Kendrick Bourne followed up his strong effort against Las Vegas with a touchdown in the Buffalo victory, and he leads NE in receptions (34) and receiving yards (370). 

• The New England defense is allowing 25.3 points per game.   


Miami Dolphins Preview

Miami moved to 5-2 after losing to Philadelphia on the road, 31-17. The Dolphins were contained by a fierce Philly defense, and they’ll look to get back on track here in divisional play. The Miami offense is scoring 34.3 ppg, while passing for 308.4 ypg, rushing for 162.3 ypg, and converting 37.1% of their third downs.

Dolphins Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa put up a fight against his former college teammate Jalen Hurts, but he came up short after finishing with a season-low 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The former fifth overall pick has looked as such early on this season, and he’ll look to avenge the loss to Philly here against Bill Belichick’s bunch.

Raheem Mostert is set to play after being marked questionable this week, and after scoring in five of the five seven games, he leads the Dolphins in rushing with 474 yards on 54 carries. 

Tyreek Hill had another productive outing versus Philly despite the result (11/88/1), and he leads the team in receptions (53) and receiving yards (902). 

Jaylen Waddle has caught five or more passes in three straight games, and he’s second on the team with 30 catches for 359 yards receiving.

• The Miami defense is allowing 26.7 points per game.   


New England vs Miami Trends

NE is 2-5 against the spread, with a 2-5 O/U record. 

MIA is 5-2 ATS, with a 5-2 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

I’m willing to bet New England was fool’s gold last week, and that Miami is looking to respond after losing to another heavyweight. Mac Jones had one of the best starts of his career, and replicating that effort in South Beach feels unlikely, as the Dolphins defense played well in the first matchup. Covering a double-digit market is a hard thing to do in the National Football League, but the Dolphins have proven they can run it up on an opponent at home. Weird things have occurred in this rivalry over the years, but Miami has won seven of the last eight meetings they’ve hosted, so let’s trust them here in this AFC East matchup. 

Corey’s Pick Dolphins to Cover

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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