Bills vs Patriots Prediction - NFL Picks 10/22/23

New England Patriots (1-5) vs Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Game Info: Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

Betting Odds: New England Patriots +6.5 -- Over/Under: 43.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Buffalo Bills will make the trip to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots in divisional play this Sunday from Gillette Stadium on CBS.

Buffalo Bills Preview

Buffalo moved to 4-2 after defeating New York at home, 14-9. The Bills avoided disaster, as Brian Daboll and Tyrod Taylor nearly got revenge with an upset victory, and they’ll look to avoid another close call here in New England. The Buffalo offense is scoring 28.8 ppg, while passing for 262.7 ypg, rushing for 118.2 ypg, and converting 49.3% of their third downs.

Bills Player Props

• Josh Allen had another messy in-state battle last week with the Giants, only passing for 169 yards with two touchdowns to an interception. The 2x Pro Bowler has grown the tendency to play down to the competition as of late, but after getting that out of him last week, there’s a good chance he comes into this divisional battle much sharper. Allen has passed for 1,576 yards, with 13 touchdowns to six interceptions thru six games.

• James Cook totaled 96 yards in the win over New York, and he leads Buffalo in rushing with 363 yards on 75 touches.

• Stefon Diggs has caught seven passes or more in five of the first six games, and he leads the Bills in receptions (49) and receiving yards (620).

• Gabe Davis scored in four straight games prior to the matchup with the Giants, and he’s posting splits of 21/341/4.

• The Buffalo defense has allowed 14.8 ppg.

New England Patriots Preview

New England fell to 1-5 after losing to Las Vegas on the road by four, 21-17. The Patriots struggled again last week, and they’ll look to avoid a fourth straight loss here against Buffalo. The New England offense is scoring 12.0 ppg, while passing for 214.5 ypg, rushing for 83.7 ypg, and converting 35.2% of their third downs.

Patriots Player Props

• Mac Jones had another forgettable outing versus Vegas last week, passing for 200 yards and an interception. The former Bama QB has failed to produce a touchdown in three straight games, and there’s word his days could be numbered at the helm. Jones has thrown for 1,208 yards with five touchdowns to seven interceptions thru six starts.

• Rhamondre Stevenson gained 70 yards and found the endzone for the first time since Week 2 in the loss to the Raiders, and he leads the Pats with 234 yards on 78 touches.

• Kendrick Bourne broke through with ten catches against LV, and he now leads NE in receptions (28) and receiving yards (307).

• The New England defense is allowing 25.3 points per game.

Buffalo vs New England Trends

• BUF is 3-3 against the spread, with a 2-4 O/U record.

• NE is 1-5 ATS, with a 1-5 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

I think of Drew Bledsoe every time I see this matchup, and things have slowly shifted over the past 20 years. It’s getting messy in Foxboro, and it may get even worse when Buffalo comes to town. The Bills will come into this one looking to clean things up after two questionable performances, but I believe they’ll capitalize on the matchup here. This New England offense is a mess right now, and while the defense may be up a fight, it’s unlikely they keep pace with Buffalo here. Back the Bills for this AFC East matchup, and give the Under a look in case the defensive units take control of this one.