Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction - NFL Picks 10/12/23

Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) vs Denver Broncos (1-4)

Game Info: Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:15 pm (GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium)

Betting Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 -- Over/Under: 48 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Denver Broncos will play the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Denver has lost four of their five games this season, while Kansas City has won four games in a row after losing their season opener to Detroit. 

Broncos Preview

The Denver Broncos are 1-4 this season after they lost to the New York Jets by a score of 31-21 in their last game. Denver led this game 13-8 at the half, but they allowed the Jets to score the first 16 points of the second half. Denver did make it a three point game in the fourth quarter, but they allowed a fumble return for a score to put the game away. The Broncos were out gained by a total of 407-308 and turned the ball over three times in the loss. Denver also has losses to Las Vegas, Washington, and Miami, with their only win coming against the lowly Bears. The Denver offense is scoring 24.2 points per game with 224 passing yards per game and 104.2 rushing yards per game this season. Russell Wilson has thrown for 1,210 yards, 11 touchdowns, and two interceptions for the Broncos this year. Jaleel McLaughlin has rushed for 160 yards and one touchdown, while Marvin Mims Jr. has caught 10 passes for 246 yards and one score. The Denver defense is allowing 36.2 points against per game this year. 

Chiefs Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 this season after they defeated the Minnesota Vikings by a score of 27-20 last week. Kansas City was tied at 13 going into halftime, but they scored the first 14 points of the second half and hung on for the win. The Chiefs out gained Minnesota by a total of 333-329 and went 9-15 on third downs in the game. Kansas City lost their season opener against Detroit, but they have won four games in a row against Jacksonville, Chicago, the Jets, and Minnesota. The Kansas City offense is averaging 25.6 points per game with 258 passing yards per game and 123 rushing yards per game this year. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,287 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while also rushing for 154 yards this season. Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 325 yards and three touchdowns, while Travis Kelce (questionable) has caught 27 passes for 222 yards and three scores. The Kansas City defense is giving up 16 points against per game this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Team Facts

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 home games before a Division game.
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games in October.
  • The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last eight home games.
  • The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Thursday games as home favorites.
  • The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six home games against AFC opponents.

Denver Broncos Team Facts

  • The Broncos have lost each of their last seven games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Broncos' last three Week 6 games.
  • The home team has won the first half in each of the Broncos' last five games.
  • Nine of the Broncos' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

  • Patrick Mahomes II has thrown three or more touchdowns in four of the Chiefs' last five games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
  • Jerick McKinnon has recorded 19+ receiving yards in eight of the Chiefs' last nine regular season games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • Patrick Mahomes II has recorded 292+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs' last four regular season games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
  • Travis Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Chiefs' last four October games as home favorites against AFC West opponents.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has recorded 15+ rushing yards in each of his six previous appearances with the Chiefs as home favorites against AFC West opponents.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has recorded 19+ rushing and receiving yards in 18 of his 19 previous regular season appearances at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • Justin Watson ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (21.9) this season.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

  • Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in three of the Broncos' last four games following a loss.
  • Russell Wilson has thrown two or more touchdowns in five of the Broncos' last six games.
  • Russell Wilson has recorded 27+ rushing yards in each of his four previous appearances against the Chiefs.
  • Russell Wilson has recorded 237+ passing yards in 12 of his last 15 appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC opponents.
  • Courtland Sutton has recorded 51+ receiving yards in six of his seven previous October appearances against AFC West opponents.
  • Russell Wilson has recorded 21+ completions in four of the Broncos' last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • Javonte Williams has recorded 58+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six appearances following a loss.
  • Russell Wilson ranks T2nd in the NFL in passing touchdowns (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Chiefs rank 31st in the NFL in Q4 points per game this season (1.8).
  • The Chiefs rank T4th in the NFL in fumbles recovered this season (5).
  • The Broncos rank 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game this season (187.6).
  • The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in average kickoff return (35.2 yards) this season.

Pick

Denver comes into this game looking like one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they will be on the road against one of the best teams in the AFC. The Broncos have played horrible defense and they have allowed 31, 28, 70, and 35 points in their last four games. Kansas City struggled in their season opener, but they have bounced back with four straight wins. The Chiefs might be without Kelce in this game, which would definitely slow their offense down, but I don’t think it will matter against a bad Denver team. Take the Chiefs to run away with this one. 

David’s Pick Chiefs -10.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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