Saints vs Patriots Prediction - NFL Picks 10/8/23

New England Patriots (1-3) vs New Orleans Saints (2-2)

Game Info: Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

Betting Odds: New England Patriots -1 -- Over/Under: 39 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots face off on Sunday in a Week 5 NFL showdown at Gillette Stadium. 

Saints Need Big Game from Derek Carr

Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury but he’s expected to be able to go here, and he’s going to need to have a big game here. In the last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints only scored nine points and they didn’t find the end zone once. Derek Carr completed 23 of his 37 passes for 127 yards. Two games ago against the Green Bay Packers, the Saints scored 17 points, but they gave up 18 points in the 4th quarter and that led to the defeat. The Saints are averaging 15.5 points while their defense is giving up 19 points per game. 

Saints Betting Trends

  • The Saints have won four of their last five October games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games played as underdogs on the East Coast.
  • The Saints have scored the first touchdown in 15 of their last 18 games played on the East Coast.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in three the Saints' last four Week 5 games.
  • The road team has won the first half in five of the Saints' last six games.

Patriots Offense Needs to Bounce Back

The Patriots need the offense to bounce back after how bad they looked against the Dallas Cowboys. The Patriots scored three points in the first quarter, and they weren’t ever able to get anything else going. Mac Jones completed 12 of his 21 passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Jones has been inconsistent and they need hilton be a whole lot better. The Patriots are averaging 13.8 points while their defense is giving up 24.8 points per game. The offense is ranked 30th in the NFL. 

Patriots Betting Trends

  • The favorites have won each of the Patriots' last 14 games.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Patriots have lost the first half in seven of their last eight home games following a road loss.
  • The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five Sunday games as home favorites.
  • The Patriots have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games as home favorites against NFC opponents.

Shane’s Free Pick

I really don’t trust either of these offenses and both are going to struggle here. Jones has really struggled and he’s not going to be any better here. Derek Carr also hasn’t been good enough, and I don’t believe the Saints are using him the right away. The shoulder injury could also still be bothering him and that is going to be the difference here as this game is going stay under the total. Back the under to cash. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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