Patriots vs Cowboys Prediction - NFL Picks 10/1/23

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) vs New England Patriots (1-2)

Game Info: Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 4:25 pm (AT&T Stadium)

Betting Odds: Dallas Cowboys -6 -- Over/Under: 44 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New England Patriots will play the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. New England got their first win of the season last week against the Jets, while Dallas picked up their first loss on the road in Arizona. 

Patriots Preview

The New England Patriots are 1-2 this season after they defeated the New York Jets by a score of 15-10 in their last game. New England led 10-0 in the second quarter and was able to hang on for the win after the Jets made it 13-10 in the fourth. The Patriots out gained New York by a total of 358-171 and forced New York to go 2-14 on third down conversions. New England lost their first two games of the season to Philadelphia and Miami, but played competitively in both losses. The New England offense is scoring 17.3 points per game with 235.7 passing yards per game and 107 rushing yards per game this year. Mac Jones has thrown for 748 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions for the Pats this year. Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 134 yards and one touchdown, while Kendrick Bourne has caught 14 passes for 139 yards and two scores. The New England defense is allowing 19.7 points against per game this year. 

Cowboys Preview

The Dallas Cowboys are 2-1 this season after they lost to the Arizona Cardinals by a score of 28-16 last week. Dallas trailed 21-10 at halftime, but did cut the lead to 21-16, before Arizona put the game away with a fourth quarter score. The Cowboys out gained Arizona by a total of 416-400, but turned the ball over once in the loss. Dallas dominated their first two games, defeating the Giants by a score of 40-0 and the Jets by a score of 30-10. The Dallas offense is averaging 28.7 points per game with 207.3 passing yards per game and 147 rushing yards per game this year. Dak Prescott has thrown for 647 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception for the Cowboys this season. Tony Pollard (questionable) has rushed for 264 yards and two touchdowns, while CeeDee Lamb (questionable) has caught 19 passes for 273 yards. The Dallas defense is giving up 12.7 points against per game, but did have a bad game against the Cardinals. 

Dallas Cowboys Team Facts

  • The Cowboys have won each of their last nine home games.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last six games following a loss.
  • The Cowboys have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first half in six of their last seven games as home favorites following a road loss.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as home favorites.

New England Patriots Team Facts

  • The Patriots have won 16 of their last 18 road games in October.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Patriots' last 13 games.
  • The Patriots have lost the first half in five of their last six games as underdogs.
  • The Patriots have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • Each of the Patriots' last five road games following a win have gone OVER the total points line.

Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Facts

  • Brandin Cooks has scored a touchdown in each of his last three appearances with his team as a home favorite.
  • Dak Prescott has thrown two or more touchdowns in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Cowboys as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • Tony Pollard has recorded 20+ receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances against AFC opponents.
  • Dak Prescott has recorded 14+ rushing yards in five of the Cowboys' last six Sunday regular season games.
  • Dak Prescott has recorded 232+ passing yards in 10 of the Cowboys' last 11 games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
  • Dak Prescott has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Cowboys' last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • DaRon Bland ranked T5th in the NFL in Interceptions (5) last season

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

  • Ezekiel Elliott has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances at AT&T Stadium.
  • Mac Jones has thrown three touchdowns in two of the Patriots' last three Sunday games as underdogs.
  • Ezekiel Elliott has recorded 32+ rushing yards in each of his 22 previous regular season appearances with his team as a road underdog.
  • Mac Jones has recorded 231+ passing yards in each of the Patriots' last four games as underdogs.
  • Kendrick Bourne has recorded 33+ receiving yards in each of his last nine appearances against NFC East opponents.
  • Mac Jones has recorded 21+ completions in nine of his last 10 regular season appearances with the Patriots as underdogs.
  • Matthew Judon ranked T4th in the NFL in Sacks (15.5) last season

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Cowboys ranked 2nd in the NFL in turnover differential (+10) last season
  • The Cowboys ranked T3rd in the NFL in sacks (54.0) last season
  • The Patriots ranked 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (42.3) last season
  • The Patriots were one of only two teams in the NFL to rank top 5 for both interceptions and sacks last season


Dallas looked like they were going to be unstoppable through the first two weeks of the season, but last week’s result was definitely a shocking one. New England is only 1-2 on the season, but they played decently well in their losses to Miami and Philadelphia. The Patriots defense will have their hands full with a high-powered Dallas offense, but they did play well against the Dolphins high scoring attack in Week 2. The Patriots are averaging over 350 yards per game this season on offense, but they have only scored 20, 17, and 15 points in their first three games. I think the points will finally come for New England in this game, and I am taking the over. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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