Falcons vs Jaguars Prediction - NFL Picks 10/1/23

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (2-1)

Game Info: Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 9:30 am (Wembley Stadium)

Betting Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 -- Over/Under: 43 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Falcons will play the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday morning in London, as part of the NFL International Series. Atlanta is coming off of a tough game in Detroit, while Jacksonville has lost two games in a row. 

Falcons Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are 2-1 this season after they lost to the Detroit Lions by a score of 20-6 last week. Atlanta tied the game at three in the second quarter, but Detroit rattled off the next 17 points to pull away for the win. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 358-183 and turned the ball over one time in the loss. Atlanta defeated Carolina by a score of 24-10 and Green Bay by a score of 25-24 in their first two games. The Atlanta offense is scoring 18.3 points per game with 155 passing yards per game and 128.3 rushing yards per game this year. Desmond Ridder has thrown for 553 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception this year for the Falcons. Bijan Robinson has rushed for 213 yards, while Mack Hollins has caught seven passes for 114 yards this season. The Atlanta defense is allowing 18 points against per game and has played pretty well through three games this year. 

Jaguars Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-2 this season after they lost to Houston by a score of 37-17 in their last game. Jacksonville trailed 17-0 at halftime and cut the lead to 17-10 in the third quarter, but the Texans were able to put the game away. The Jaguars out gained Houston by a total of 404-366 and turned the ball over two times in the game. Jacksonville defeated Indianapolis by a score of 31-21 in Week 1, but lost to Kansas City at home by a score of 17-9 in Week 2. The Jacksonville offense is averaging 19 points per game with 240.7 passing yards per game and 98.3 rushing yards per game this season. Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 736 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions for the Jags this year. Travis Etienne Jr. has rushed for 205 yards and one touchdown, while Christian Kirk has caught 16 passes for 173 yards and one score. The Jacksonville defense is giving up 25 points against per game this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars Team Facts

  • The Jaguars have lost 20 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine October games against NFC opponents.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Jaguars' last three Week 4 games.
  • The Jaguars have lost the first half in 13 of their last 14 October games against NFC opponents.
  • Each of the Jaguars' last four games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Team Facts

  • The Falcons have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against AFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have lost the first quarter in six of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Falcons have lost the first half in each of their last four games against AFC opponents.
  • Nine of the Falcons' last 10 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

  • Travis Etienne has scored a touchdown in four of the Jaguars' last five Sunday games as favorites.
  • Evan Engram has recorded 49+ receiving yards in each of the Jaguars' last five games as favorites following a loss.
  • Travis Etienne has recorded 71+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars' last five games as favorites following a loss.
  • Trevor Lawrence has recorded 241+ passing yards in four of the Jaguars' last five games as favorites following a loss.
  • Trevor Lawrence has recorded 24+ completions in four of the Jaguars' last five games.
  • Rayshawn Jenkins was one of only seven players in the NFL to record 100+ tackles and 3+ interceptions last season

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

  • Desmond Ridder has recorded 19+ completions in four of the Falcons' last five Sunday games.
  • Drake London has recorded 47+ receiving yards in each of the Falcons' last four games following a loss.
  • Tyler Allgeier has recorded 45+ rushing yards in nine of the Falcons' last 10 games as underdogs.
  • Desmond Ridder has recorded 201+ passing yards in three of the Falcons' last four games.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Jaguars ranked 1st in the AFC South for average point differential last season (+3.2)
  • The Jaguars ranked 1st in the AFC South for total yards per game last season (357.4)
  • The Falcons ranked 1st in the NFC South for rushing yards per game last season (159.9)
  • The Falcons ranked 31st in the NFL in passing yards per game (158.8) last season

Pick

Both of these teams are coming off of a loss last week, but I think Jacksonville really needs to get a win in this game. The Jaguars have not looked very good over the last two weeks and even struggled in the win over the Colts. Atlanta got two nice wins to start the year, but were severely outplayed against the Lions in their last game. The Jacksonville defense is definitely a sore spot, but the Falcons don’t have the type of offense that will be able to take advantage, so I am going with the Jaguars in this one. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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