Dolphins vs Bills Prediction - NFL Picks 10/1/23

Buffalo Bills (2-1) vs Miami Dolphins (3-0)

Game Info: Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Highmark Stadium)

Betting Odds: Buffalo Bills -2.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: CBS Stream live sports and exclusive originals on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills face off on Sunday in a Week 4 NFL showdown at Bills Stadium. This is a big early-season test for both teams. 

How Do The Dolphins Build on Last Week?

The Dolphins sure were impressive last week against the Denver Broncos to pick up their third win of the season. The Dolphins offense scored 70 points against the Broncoos and that was enough for the 50 point victory. Tua Tagovailoa had a strong game completing 23 of his 36 passes for 309 yards and four touchdowns. Rookie running back De’Von Achane finished with 18 carries for 203 yards and two touchdowns. Raheem Mostert also finished with 82 yards and three touchdowns. Jaylen Waddle missed the last game with a concussion but he’s expected to return in this game. The Bills are averaging 43.3 points while their defense is giving up 23.7 points per game. 

Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins have lost each of their last eight Week 4 games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight Week 4 games.
  • The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in each of their last five road games following a home win.
  • The Dolphins have lost the first half in each of their last eight Week 4 games as underdogs.
  • Each of the Dolphins' last six Week 4 games as underdogs against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Bills Look for Third Straight Win. 

The Bills suffered a locking loss in Game 1 against the New York Jets, but since that point they have won two straight games. Against the Raiders the Bills were able to secure the 38-10 victory and in the last game against the Washington Commanders they won 37-3. Stefon Diggs had a strong game finishing with eight catches for 111 yards. The Bills are averaging 30.3 points while their defense is giving up 11.7 points per game. The offense and defense are both ranked second in the NFL. 

Bills Betting Trends

  • The Bills have won each of their last seven games against the Dolphins at Highmark Stadium.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as home favorites following a win.
  • The Bills have won the first half in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Bills have won the first quarter in each of their last four October games at Highmark Stadium.
  • The Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six home games against AFC East opponents.

Dolphins vs Bills Facts

  • The Bills ranked 1st in the AFC East for points allowed per game last season (17.9)
  • The Bills ranked 1st in the AFC East for average point differential last season (+10.6)
  • The Dolphins ranked 31st in the NFL in average punt return (5.8 yards) last season
  • The Dolphins ranked 31st in the NFL in punt return yards per game (6.5) last season

Shane’s Free Pick

In paper this might seem like a letdown spot for the Dolphins, but going against the Bills is such a big game for them. The winner of this game could be the winner of the AFC East.  Achane looks to be a special talent for the Dolphins and this is a balanced offense. Even against a good defense the Dolphins offense is going to find a ton of success scoring and that is going to be the difference here. Back the Dolphins getting the points. 

Shane’s Pick Dolphins +2.5

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NBA, MLB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Friday 4/19/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.

Dismiss