Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction - NFL Picks 10/1/23

New Orleans Saints (2-1) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Game Info: Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Caesars Superdome)

Betting Odds: New Orleans Saints -3 - Over/Under: 40 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints face off on Sunday in a Week 4 NFL showdown at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. 

Buccaneers Look to Bounce Back

The Buccaneers really need a big bounce back after how they looked in the last game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Buccaneers won the first two games of the season but they were defeated 25-11. Baker Completed 15 of his 25 passes for 146 yards for one touchdown and two interceptions. Running back Rachaad White completed 14 carries for 38 yards. The first two games the defense stepped up and it’s clear that for this team to have success it’s going to be the defense first that will need to have success. 

Bucs Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last five road games following a home loss.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven October road games against NFC opponents.
  • The Buccaneers have lost the first half in seven of their last eight October games as underdogs.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in three of the Buccaneers' last four Week 4 games.
  • The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against NFC South opponents.

Saints Coming off First Loss

The first three games for the Saints have only been decided by a total of five points, Against the Titans they won 16-15 and against the Carolina Panthers they won 20-17. In the last game against the Green Bay Packers, the Saints only scored 17 points and they lost by a point. The Saints were up 17-0 against the Packers in the last game, but they couldn’t hold on giving up 18 points in the 4th quarter. Derek Carr was knocked out with a shoulder injury, and he’s officially questionable for this game. He has been throwing during practice but it’s unclear if he’s going to be able to go in this game. 

Saints Betting Trends

  • The Saints have won 21 of their last 22 October games as favorites.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last eight Week 4 games.
  • The Saints have won the first half in each of their last six games against NFC opponents.
  • The Saints have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games as home favorites following a loss.
  • The Saints have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games.

Shane’s Free Pick

This game is going to be low scoring. Even if Carr plays it’s hard for me to think he will be 100 percent in this game. I am still not sold on Baker Mayfield being the answer for the Buccaneers and that is going to be the difference here. Both teams are going to struggle to get to 17 points and that is going to be the difference here as this game is going to stay under the total. Back the under. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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