Lions vs Packers Prediction - NFL Picks 9/28/23

Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs Detroit Lions (2-1)

Game Info: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 8:15 pm (Lambeau Field)

Betting Odds: Green Bay Packers +1.5 -- Over/Under: 46 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions face off on Thursday in a Week 4 NFL showdown at Lambeau Field. 

Will Christian Watson Play Here?

The big question for the Packers heading into this game is the status of Christian Watson and Aaron Jones. Watson hasn’t played yet this season, and Jones has missed the last couple of games. The Packers come into this game with a 2-1 record overall, and they had a big comeback in the last game. Heading into the 4th quarter, the Packers were down 17-0, but they scored 18 points in the last quarter and they ended up winning. Jordan Love completed 22 of his 24 passes for 259 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Romeo Doubs caught five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown. 

Packers Betting Trends

  • The Packers have won each of their last four games as underdogs following a home win.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 September games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have won the first quarter in each of their last four Week 4 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Packers have won the first half in each of their last four home games against NFC North opponents.
  • Four of the Packers' last five games as underdogs following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Huge Game for Lions

The Lions come into this game with a 2-1 record, and if they want to win this division, this is a game that they need to win. In the last game against the Falcons, the defense gave up only six points and that led to the 14 point victory. Jared Goff completed 22 of his 33 passes for 243 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Armon-Ra St. Brown finished with nine catches for 102 yards. The Lions are averaging 24 points, while their defense is giving up 21 points per game. Running back David Montgomery is dealing with a thigh injury, and it’s unclear if he’s going to be able to go in this game.

Lions Betting Trends

  • The Lions have lost each of their last three games as road favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last seven games following a home win.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Lions' last five Week 4 games.
  • The Lions have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six road games against the Packers.
  • The Lions have won the first half in each of their last nine September games as favorites against NFC opponents.

Packers vs Lions Facts

  • The Packers ranked 1st in the NFC North for total yards allowed per game last season (336.5)
  • The Packers ranked 31st in the NFL in total punt yards (2313) last season
  • The Lions ranked 1st in the NFC North for average point differential last season (+1.5)
  • The Lions ranked 1st in the NFC North for total yards per game last season (380.0)

Shane’s Free Pick

Getting Watson and Jones back is a huge boost for this team, and assuming they play, the Packers are going to get the job done here. The Lions offense wasn’t as dominant in the last game, and they are going to struggle to score in this game. Look for the Packers' offense to get a big game from Jordan Love, and the Lions aren’t going to be keeping up in this game. Back the Packers against the spread. 

Shane’s Pick Packers +1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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