Bills vs Commanders Prediction - NFL Picks 9/24/23

Washington Commanders (2-0) vs Buffalo Bills (1-1)

Game Info: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 1:00 pm (FedEx Field)

Betting Odds: Washington Commanders +6.5 -- Over/Under: 43 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Buffalo Bills will play the Washington Commanders in Week 3 of the NFL regular season on Sunday afternoon at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. Buffalo is coming off of a blowout win against Las Vegas, while Washington completed a huge comeback last week. 

Bills Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 1-1 this season after they defeated the Las Vegas Raiders by a score of 38-10 in their last game. Buffalo went down 7-0 early in the first quarter, but they were able score 38 of the next 41 points for the easy win. The Bills out gained Las Vegas by a total of 450-240 and forced three turnovers in the win. Buffalo lost to the Jets by a score of 22-16 in overtime in Week 1. The Buffalo offense is scoring 27 points per game with 242 passing yards per game and 140 rushing yards per game this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 510 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, while rushing for 43 yards for the Bills this season. James Cook has rushed for 169 yards, while Stefon Diggs has caught 17 passes for 168 yards and one score. The Buffalo defense is giving up 16 points against per game and has played well during the first two weeks.

Commanders Preview

The Washington Commanders are 2-0 this season after they defeated the Denver Broncos by a score of 35-33 last week. Washington trailed 21-3 early in the second quarter, but they dominated the rest of the game and came away with a huge road win. The Commanders were out gained by a total of 399-388, but forced two turnovers in the win. Washington defeated Arizona by a score of 20-16 in their first game. The Washington offense is averaging 27.5 points per game with 211 passing yards per game and 107 rushing yards per game this season. Sam Howell has thrown for 501 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception for the Commanders this year. Brian Robinson Jr. has rushed for 146 yards and two scores, while Terry McLaurin has caught seven passes for 85 yards and one touchdown. The Washington defense is allowing 24.5 points against per game this year. 

Washington Commanders Team Facts

  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last eight home games before a Division game.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as home underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • The favorites have won the first half in each of the Commanders' last four Week 3 games.
  • The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a win.
  • The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Sunday games played on the East Coast.

Buffalo Bills Team Facts

  • The Bills have won five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four September games against NFC opponents.
  • The Bills have won the first half in 12 of their last 14 September games as favorites.
  • The Bills have won the first quarter in four of their last five Week 3 games.
  • The Bills have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 11 Week 3 games.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

  • Terry McLaurin has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders' last three games as underdogs.
  • Terry McLaurin has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Commanders' last eight games as underdogs.
  • Terry McLaurin was one of only seven players in the NFL to record 1,000 receiving yards with less than 80 receptions last season

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

  • Josh Allen has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills' last four September games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • Josh Allen has recorded 254+ passing yards in each of the Bills' last four Sunday games played on the East Coast.
  • Josh Allen has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Bills' last six September games as favorites.
  • Josh Allen has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the Bills' last three September games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • Josh Allen has recorded 32+ rushing yards in 13 of the Bills' last 14 Sunday road games.
  • Stefon Diggs has recorded 74+ receiving yards in 13 of the Bills' last 15 regular season road games.
  • Gabriel Davis ranked 2nd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (17.4) last season

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Commanders ranked 28th in the NFL in interceptions (9) last season
  • The Commanders ranked 6th in the NFL in total punt yards (3885) last season
  • The Bills ranked 1st in the AFC East for points allowed per game last season (17.9)
  • The Bills ranked 1st in the AFC East for average point differential last season (+10.6)

Pick

The Bills struggled with turnovers in the first game of their season, but they blew the doors off of Las Vegas in Week 2. Washington went down big in the first half to Denver, then almost allowed them to complete a crazy comeback on a Hail Mary, but they were able to get their second win of the season. I liked the fight that Washington showed in their comeback against Denver, but they need to play a better first half in this game. I think the Bills will continue to roll offensively, but I also think this Washington offense will be able to hang with them for a little bit. I like the over here. 

David’s Pick Over 43

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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