Packers vs Falcons Prediction - NFL Picks 9/17/23

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) vs Green Bay Packers (1-0)

Game Info: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 -- Over/Under: 40.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons face off on Sunday in a Week 2 NFL showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Hamstring Injuries Hurting Packers

The Packers have some major injury concerns heading into this game. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are both dealing with hamstring injuries and it’s unknown if they are going to be able to go in this game. Watson missed the first game against the Packers, while Jones played a big role in the Packers Week 1 victory over the Chicago Bears. In the first game of the year against the Bears, the Packers put up 38 points and that led to the blowout victory. Jordan Love completed 15 of his 27 passes for 245 yards and three touchdowns. Aaron Jones finished with nine carries for 41 yards and a touchdown. He also caught two passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. If Jones can't go in this game, AJ Dillon is going to need to have a big game.

Packers Betting Trends

The Packers have won each of their last six games as road underdogs following a Division game.
The home team has covered the spread in each of the Packers' last eight Week 2 games.
The Packers have won the first quarter in three of their last four September games as underdogs.
The Packers have won the first half in each of their last four games against NFC opponents.
Each of the Packers' last four games played as underdogs on the East Coast have gone UNDER the total points line.

Falcons Run Wild

If the Falcons are going to find success all season, it’s going to be all about the running game. Bijan Robinson was the first round pick and he finished with 10 carries for 56 yards. Tyler Allgeier also had a huge game finishing with 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns. It’s clear they are going to be the 1-2 punch all season if they both stay healthy. In the first game against the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons were able to secure a 24-10 victory. Desmond Ridder completed 15 of his 18 passes for one touchdown. Against the Panthers, the Falcons defense struggled to stop the run, and that is going to need to be something that improved here.

Falcons Betting Trends

The home team has won each of the Falcons' last six Week 2 games.
The Falcons have covered the spread in each of their last five games in September.
The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
The favorites have won the first half in each of the last four games between the Packers and Falcons.
The Falcons have won the first quarter in each of their last three games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against teams that held a winning record.

Packers vs Falcons Facts

The Falcons ranked 1st in the NFC South for rushing yards per game last season (159.9)
The Falcons ranked 31st in the NFL in passing yards per game (158.8) last season
The Packers ranked 1st in the NFC North for total yards allowed per game last season (336.5)
The Packers ranked 31st in the NFL in total punt yards (2313) last season

Shane’s Free Pick

Jordan Love looked good in his first game, but I am still not sold on him. The Falcons offense was good in the first game because of their running game, and that is going to continue here. Look for the Falcons to run wild here. The injury issues for the Packers are a big concern to me and it’s going to really hurt them in this game. The Falcons offense will be good here and that will be the difference as Atlanta is going to get the job done here. Back the Falcons against the spread.