Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction - NFL Picks 9/17/23

New England Patriots (0-1) vs Miami Dolphins (1-0)

Game Info: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:20 pm (Gillette Stadium)

Betting Odds: New England Patriots +3 -- Over/Under: 46.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Dolphins and New York Patriots face off on Sunday Night Football in a Week 2 NFL showdown at Gillette Stadium. 

Dolphins Offense Clicking

The Dolphins offense is really clocking heading into this game and they are coming off a key victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Dolphins scored 36 points and that was enough for the two point victory. Tua Tagovailoa had a strong game finishing with 466 yards through the air, three touchdowns, and one interception. The running game had a little bit of an issue getting going and he finished with 10 carries for 37 yards and a touchdown. Tyreek Hill is one of the best wide receivers in football and he caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns. In this game the offense will need to be good, but the defense is also going to need to step up. 

Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins have won each of their last nine games as favorites following a win.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC opponents.
  • The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in each of their last four road games against AFC East opponents.
  • The Dolphins have lost the first half in eight of their last nine Week 2 games.
  • Eight of the Dolphins' last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Can the Patriots Bounce Back?

The Patriots opened up the season against the Philadelphia Eagles and they almost made a late comeback but they ended up losing 25-20. At the end of the first quarter they were down 16-0, but they ended up fighting back and only losing by five points. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones did have a strong game finishing with 35 completed passes for 316 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. One area the Patriots really need to improve is with the running game. Ezekiel Elliott finished with seven carries for 29 yards. Rhamodre Stevenson finished with 12 rushes, but he only had 25 yards. The offense needs to be more balanced going forward. 

Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Patriots have won seven of their last eight Week 2 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs.
  • The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven Week 2 games.
  • The Patriots have lost the first quarter in each of their last five September games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have lost the first half in each of their last four games as home underdogs against AFC opponents.

Dolphins vs Patriots Facts

  • The Patriots ranked 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt (42.3) last season
  • The Patriots were one of only two teams in the NFL to rank top 5 for both interceptions and sacks last season
  • The Dolphins ranked 31st in the NFL in average punt return (5.8 yards) last season
  • The Dolphins ranked 31st in the NFL in punt return yards per game (6.5) last season

Shane’s Free Pick

The Patriots almost came back against the Eagles, but their offense only scored 20 points. 20 points in this game against the Dolphins isn’t going to be enough to this game close. The Dolphins are going to get another big game from Tagovailoa and Hill is going to catch at least a couple of touchdowns. The Dolphins are going to go over the 35 point mark again here, and the Patriots aren’t going to keep this game close. Back the Dolphins against the spread. 

Shane’s Pick Dolphins -3

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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