Commanders vs Broncos Prediction - NFL Picks 9/17/23

Denver Broncos (0-1) vs Washington Commanders (1-0)

Game Info: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 4:25 pm (Empower Field at Mile High)

Betting Odds: Denver Broncos -3.5 -- Over/Under: 39 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Washington Commanders will play the Denver Broncos in Week 2 on Sunday afternoon at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. Washington opened up their season with a home win over Arizona, while Denver lost by one point to Las Vegas. 

Commanders Preview

The Washington Commanders are 1-0 this season after they defeated the Arizona Cardinals by a score of 20-16 in Week 1. Washington took the 7-0 lead in the first quarter, but they were trailing 13-10 at the half. The Commanders trailed 16-10 in the fourth quarter, but they outscored Arizona by a total of 10-0 in the fourth quarter for the win. Washington out gained Arizona by a total of 248-210, but they did turn the ball over three times in the game. Washington threw for 156 yards and rushed for 92 yards, while going 4-12 on third down conversions. Sam Howell threw for 202 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while also adding a rushing score for the Commanders. Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 59 yards, while Curtis Samuel caught five passes for 54 yards in the win. The Washington defense allowed 114 passing yards and 96 rushing yards, while also forcing two turnovers and a turnover on downs. 

Broncos Preview

The Denver Broncos are 0-1 this season after they lost to the Las Vegas Raiders by a score of 17-16 last week. Denver led this game at the half by a score of 13-10 and led in the fourth quarter by a score of 16-10, but allowed a Jakobi Meyers touchdown reception with about six minutes left in the game for the loss. Denver was out gained by a total of 261-260, but didn’t turn the ball over in the game. The Broncos threw for 166 yards and ran for 94 yards, while going 5-11 on third down attempts in the loss. Russell Wilson threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns for the Broncos in the game. Javonte Williams rushed for 52 yards on 13 carries, while Samaje Perine caught four passes for 37 yards in the loss. The Broncos did spread the ball around, with 10 players catching a pass. The Denver defense allowed 200 passing yards and 61 rushing yards, while forcing one turnover. 

Denver Broncos Team Facts

  • The Broncos have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine Sunday games as favorites.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in four the Broncos' last six Week 2 games.
  • The Broncos have lost the first half in each of their last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • Each of the Broncos' last six home games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Team Facts

  • The Commanders have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a home win.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight September games as underdogs.
  • The Commanders have lost the first half in each of their last five road games in September.
  • The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games following a win.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in six the Commanders' last eight Week 2 games.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

  • Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in each of the Broncos' last two games.
  • Russell Wilson has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of his last five home appearances against NFC East opponents.
  • Russell Wilson has recorded 240+ passing yards in six of his last seven September appearances against NFC opponents.
  • Courtland Sutton has recorded 72+ receiving yards in five of his last six appearances with the Broncos as favorites following a loss.
  • Javonte Williams has recorded 48+ rushing yards in each of his last seven Sunday appearances at Empower Field at Mile High.
  • Justin Simmons ranked T1st in the AFC for Interceptions (6) last season

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

  • Antonio Gibson has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders' last four September games as underdogs.
  • Brian Robinson has recorded 57+ rushing yards in each of his last six Sunday appearances.
  • Jahan Dotson has recorded 43+ receiving yards in three of his four previous Sunday road appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Broncos ranked 32nd in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (24.7) last season
  • The Broncos ranked 1st in the AFC West for points allowed per game last season (21.1)
  • The Commanders ranked 28th in the NFL in interceptions (9) last season
  • The Commanders ranked 6th in the NFL in total punt yards (3885) last season

Pick

Denver opened up their season with a loss and the offense really didn’t do much in the second half, while Washington was able to complete a fourth quarter comeback for their first win. Denver will be at home once again for this matchup and I think they will play much better. Washington nearly lost to Arizona last week, who is using a backup quarterback, so I am worried how they are going to do in this game on the road in Denver. Russell Wilson may not be what he was in Seattle, but he played fine in their first game and avoided throwing any interceptions. I do think Denver gets the win in this game, but I am taking the under here. Neither offense packs too much of a punch and I think we see a low scoring game in this one. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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