Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction - NFL Picks 9/17/23

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) vs Kansas City Chiefs (0-1)

Game Info: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1:00 pm (EverBank Stadium)

Betting Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -- Over/Under: 51 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Kansas City Chiefs will play the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2 on Sunday afternoon at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. Kansas City wasn’t able to open their season with a win last week, while Jacksonville will look to go 2-0 in this game. 

Chiefs Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-1 this season after they lost to the Lions by a score of 21-20 in their first game. Kansas City led this game 14-7 at halftime and played well enough to win, but they had quite a few drops by their wide receivers. The Chiefs gave up a touchdown run to David Montgomery in the middle of the fourth quarter to lose the lead and the game. Kansas City was out gained by a total of 368-316 and turned the ball over once. The Chiefs threw for 226 yards and they rushed for 90 yards. Patrick Mahomes threw for 226 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The interception was a costly one, as the Lions took it back for a touchdown, but it did hit the receiver in the hands. Mahomes added 45 rushing yards, while Isiah Pacheco had eight carries for 23 yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught two passes for 48 yards, while Justin Watson caught two passes for 45 yards. Travis Kelce missed the game against Detroit and is questionable for this matchup. The Kansas City defense allowed 250 passing yards and 118 rushing yards in the loss. 

Jaguars Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-0 this season after they defeated the Indianapolis Colts by a score of 31-21 last week. Jacksonville led this game 14-7 at the half, but they trailed 21-17 heading into the fourth quarter. The Jaguars added two touchdowns runs from Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. in the fourth quarter for the win. Jacksonville out gained Indianapolis by a total of 342-280 and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-2. The Jags threw for 237 yards and ran for 105 yards. Trevor Lawrence threw for 241 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in the win. Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 77 yards and one touchdown, while Calvin Ridley caught eight passes for 101 yards and one score. Zay Jones added five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown. The Jacksonville defense allowed 215 passing yards and 65 rushing yards. 

Jacksonville Jaguars Team Facts

  • The Jaguars have won each of their last six games as home underdogs.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs in Florida.
  • The Jaguars have won the first quarter in four of their last five Week 2 games as home underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Week 2 home games.
  • The Jaguars have lost the first half in 22 of their last 24 games against AFC West opponents.

Kansas City Chiefs Team Facts

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games following a loss.
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six September games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games following a loss.
  • The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Chiefs' last five Week 2 games.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

  • Calvin Ridley has scored at least one touchdown in each of his four previous Week 2 appearances.
  • Trevor Lawrence has recorded 25+ completions in four of the Jaguars' last five home games.
  • Trevor Lawrence has recorded 259+ passing yards in four of the Jaguars' last five Sunday games as underdogs.
  • Christian Kirk has recorded 46+ receiving yards in each of the Jaguars' last six games at EverBank Stadium.
  • Travis Etienne has recorded 62+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars' last four games as underdogs following a win.
  • Trevor Lawrence has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the Jaguars' last three games as underdogs in Florida.
  • Devin Lloyd was one of only seven players in the NFL to record 100+ tackles and 3+ interceptions last season

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

  • Jerick McKinnon has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Chiefs' last five regular season games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • Patrick Mahomes II has thrown two or more touchdowns in 12 of the Chiefs' last 13 September games against AFC opponents.
  • Isiah Pacheco has recorded 43+ rushing yards in each of the Chiefs' last six Sunday regular season road games.
  • Patrick Mahomes II has recorded 320+ passing yards in eight of the Chiefs' last nine Sunday games as favorites.
  • Isiah Pacheco has recorded 16+ receiving yards in four of the Chiefs' last five Sunday regular season games.
  • Patrick Mahomes II ranked 1st in the NFL in Passing Touchdowns (41) last season

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Jaguars ranked 1st in the AFC South for average point differential last season (+3.2)
  • The Jaguars ranked 1st in the AFC South for total yards per game last season (357.4)
  • The Chiefs ranked 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game (297.8) last season
  • The Chiefs ranked 1st in the AFC West for points scored per game last season (29.2)

Pick

Kansas City struggled to get into a rhythm in their first game against Detroit and they were plagued by some poor play from their wide receivers. The Chiefs will hope to have Travis Kelce back for this game and they could really use him against a Jacksonville offense that is very dangerous. Jacksonville struggled to put away the Colts in Week 1, but they eventually did and pulled away for the double-digit win. This should be a great game, but I am going to take the Jaguars at home with the points. Kansas City didn’t look good offensively in Week 1, and if Kelce doesn’t play, I think they will get their second loss. Even if Kelce does play, I like Jacksonville to keep this within a field goal, as I think they will find success on offense. 

David’s Pick Jaguars +3.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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