Bills vs Jets Prediction - NFL Picks 9/11/23

New York Jets (0-0) vs Buffalo Bills (0-0)

Game Info: Monday, September 11, 2023 at 8:15 pm (MetLife Stadium)

Betting Odds: New York Jets +2.5 -- Over/Under: 45.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets kick off their NFL season on week 1 Monday Night Football at MetLife Stadium.

All Eyes on Aaron Rodgers

All eyes are going to be on New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and this game will be a great indication of what this team can do. Last season the Jets had an elite defensive team giving up only 18.6 points per game which was 4th best in the league. Last season, Rodgers completed 64.6 percent of passes for 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. In the background, Rodgers has two great running backs at his disposal. Breece Hall is primed to have a big season, and Dalvin Cook was brought in this offseason. I would expect both to play big roles in this game. All eyes are going to be on Rodgers for this game, but it might actually come down to the defense and if they are able to slow down Josh Allen.

Jets Betting Trends

  • The Jets have lost each of their last seven Monday games at MetLife Stadium.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven September games at MetLife Stadium.
  • The Jets have lost the first half in 10 of their last 11 games in September.
  • The Jets have lost the first quarter in each of their last five home games in September.
  • Eight of the Jets' last nine games played as underdogs on the East Coast have gone UNDER the total points line.

Bills Trying to Prove Something

The Bills seem to be overlooked heading into this season, and they could make a big statement in this game. All the talk this offseason seems to be about the Jets, but the Bills want to prove they are still the best teams in the AFC East. Under center for the Bills will be Josh Allen, and last season he completed 63.3 percent from the field for 4,283 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. One issue for the Bills on defense is the loss of Von Miller, who is going to miss the first four games of the season while he’s on the PUP list. In this game, it’s going to come down to Josh Allen and how he plays. The Bills are going to need the offense to really step up here. 

Bills Betting Trends

  • The Bills have won each of their last five games against AFC East opponents.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four season openers against AFC East opponents.
  • The Bills have won the first half in seven of their last eight September games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The Bills have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
  • The Bills have lost the first quarter in each of their last four Week 1 road games against AFC opponents.

Jets and Bills Facts

  • The Jets ranked 31st in the NFL in fumbles recovered (4) last season
  • The Jets ranked 3rd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (189.4) last season
  • The Bills ranked 1st in the AFC East for points allowed per game last season (17.9)
  • The Bills ranked 1st in the AFC East for average point differential last season (+10.6)

Shane’s Free Pick

I think the Jets are going to have a good season, maybe even a great season, but they are going to struggle in this game. Josh Allen is an elite quarterback and even against a good defensive team, I expect he’s going to find success here. It’s going to take a bit for Rodgers to gel with all his weapons, and it’s going to be the visiting team that is going to get the job done. Back the Bills against the spread. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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