Jaguars vs Colts Prediction - NFL Picks 9/10/23

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

Game Info: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

Betting Odds: Indianapolis Colts +4.5 -- Over/Under: 46 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts face off on Sunday in a Week 1 NFL showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium.

What are the Colts Doing?

The Colts have one of the best running backs in football, and it looks like he might never play another snap with them. Last season Jonathan Taylor rushed for 861 yards and four touchdowns but this offseason he requested a trade and he’s currently on the pup. WIth a young quarterback like Anthony Richardson a good running back is always key, and now they won’t have their star on the field. Zack Moss is expected to be the starter if he’s healthy, but he’s questionable and could miss this game. Richardson was drafted in the first round and he’s going to start here. He does have a couple of good receivers to throw to in Michael Pittman Jr and Alec Pierce. Last season the Colts defense gave up 25.1 points and the defense is going to need to be better here. 

Colts Betting Trends

  • The favorites have won each of the last 10 games between the Jaguars and Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.
  • The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight Week 1 games.
  • The Colts have lost the first half in each of their last seven games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Colts have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games as home underdogs against AFC South opponents.
  • The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last four Sunday games as underdogs.

How Good Can the Jaguars Be?

Last season the Jaguars finished with a 9-8 record and they finished in 1st place of the AFC South, and the expectation is they will be even better this year. Last season Jaguars starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. The Jaguars also got a lot better this offseason with the addition of Calvin Ridley who was suspended for last season. That goes along with Christian Kirk who had a huge season last year. Running back Travis Etienne Jr is also going to be a key for the offfense. The defense last year gave up 20.6 points per game which was 12th best in the league. 

Jaguars Betting Trends

  • The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven Sunday games as favorites.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
  • The Jaguars have lost the first half in each of their last four road openers.
  • The Jaguars have lost the first quarter in six of their last eight games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
  • Each of the Jaguars' last four season openers have gone OVER the total points line.

Jaguars vs Colts Facts

  • The Colts ranked 1st in the AFC South for total yards allowed per game last season (334.0)
  • The Colts ranked 2nd in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (70.4) last season
  • The Jaguars ranked 1st in the AFC South for average point differential last season (+3.2)
  • The Jaguars ranked 1st in the AFC South for total yards per game last season (357.4)

Shane’s Free Pick

This total is too low. The Colts defense didn’t improve much this offseason and the Jaguars are going to have no issue running up the score. Trevor Lawrence had a big year in 2022 and he’s going to be even better here. I also expect a big game from Calvin Ridley who I think could be one of the top receivers in the league. I don’t expect the Colts to run up the score and put up 30 points, but I do think Anthony Richardson is going to lead a couple of touchdown drives and that is going to be the difference here. This game is going to get close to 50 points, and the over is going to cash here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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