Bengals vs Browns Prediction - NFL Picks 9/10/23
Cleveland Browns (0-0) vs Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Game Info: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Cleveland Browns Stadium)
Betting Odds: Cleveland Browns +2 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
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The Cincinnati Bengals will play the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 on Sunday afternoon at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. Cincinnati had a solid season in 2022, but there are some questions surrounding the health of Joe Burrow, while Cleveland is hoping Deshaun Watson can return to being a great quarterback this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals were 14-5 last season and they went 3-3 in the AFC North. The Bengals finished the regular season by winning eight straight games and went into the playoffs with a ton of momentum. Cincinnati defeated Baltimore in the first round and Buffalo in the second round, before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Title game. Joe Burrow missed most of camp and the preseason with a calf injury, but it sounds like he is going to be ready to play in this game. Burrow will have plenty of options to throw to, as Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all back for another season. Joe Mixon is the lead back and is looking to build off of a solid year in 2022. Cincinnati went 0-2-1 in the preseason, but it is no shock that they struggled, as their backup quarterback situation isn’t ideal. The Bengals should have another solid season, but will Burrow be able to play at a high level with almost no preparation coming into the season?
The Cleveland Browns went 7-10 last year and they also were 3-3 in the AFC North. Cleveland started the season with a 3-7 record, but they did finish the season by going 4-3 down the stretch. Cleveland really struggled defensively in the first half of the season, but they only allowed more than 17 points in two of their last seven games. The Browns need to get better quarterback play out of Deshaun Watson, who never really got into a rhythm last season. Nick Chubb will be the starting running back once again, after rushing for 1,525 yards in 2022. Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones will be the wide receivers, while David Njoku is the starting tight end. Cleveland went 1-2-1 in the preseason this year, getting the extra game due to playing in the Hall of Fame game. I expect Watson is going to have a bounce back year and I think the Browns are going to contend in the AFC North.
Cleveland Browns Team Facts
- The underdogs have won four of the Browns' last five games at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine Sunday games at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
- The Browns have scored the first touchdown in 15 of their last 16 home games against AFC North opponents.
- The Browns have won the first quarter in five of their last six Sunday games at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
- The home team has won the first half in eight of the last nine games between the Bengals and Browns.
Cincinnati Bengals Team Facts
- The Bengals have won each of their last six games before a Division game.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight Sunday road games.
- The Bengals have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games against AFC North opponents.
- The underdogs have won the first quarter in three the Bengals' last four Week 1 games.
- The underdogs have won the first half in nine of the Bengals' last 10 Week 1 games.
Cleveland Browns Player Prop Facts
- Deshaun Watson has thrown two or more touchdowns in six of his last seven Sunday home appearances.
- Deshaun Watson has recorded 24+ completions in eight of his last nine Sunday home appearances.
- Nick Chubb has recorded 16+ receiving yards in seven of the Browns' last eight games as underdogs against AFC North opponents.
- Deshaun Watson has recorded 275+ passing yards in 11 of his last 12 Sunday home appearances.
- Nick Chubb has recorded 84+ rushing yards in each of the Browns' last seven September home games.
- Nick Chubb has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Browns' last five games as home underdogs.
- Myles Garrett ranked 1st in the AFC for Sacks (16.0) last season
Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Facts
- Ja'Marr Chase has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six Sunday regular season appearances with the Bengals as favorites.
- Joe Mixon has recorded 23+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine regular season appearances with the Bengals as favorites.
- Tee Higgins was one of only seven players in the NFL to record 1,000 receiving yards with less than 80 receptions last season
- The Browns ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (146.5) last season
- The Browns ranked T27th in the NFL in sacks (34.0) last season
- The Bengals ranked 1st in the AFC North for total yards per game last season (360.5)
- The Bengals ranked 1st in the AFC North for passing yards per game last season (265.0)
The Bengals will look to make another deep run in the postseason this year, but I think they are going to start the season slower than people think. Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but even he is going to struggle to get into a rhythm after being out for so long this preseason. Cleveland will be at home, where they defeated Cincinnati by a score of 32-13 last season. If Burrow was completely healthy coming into this game, I would feel differently, but I am taking the Browns with the points at home.