Jaguars vs. Chiefs Prediction - NFL Picks 1/21/23

Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8)

Game Info: Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 4:30 pm (GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium)

Betting Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 -- Over/Under: 53 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs face off on Saturday in the AFC Divisional round in the NFL playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium. 

Previous Meeting

These two teams faced off on November 13th at Arrowhead Stadium and it was the Chiefs that secured the 27-17 victory. Patrick Mahomes completed 26 of his 35 passes for 331 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Trevor Lawrence completed 29 of his 40 passes for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. 

Jaguars Preview

The Jaguars come into this game with a 10-8 record overall, and they are coming off quite the win in the last game over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jaguars were down 27-0 in the first half, and it looked like they were going to be blown out. In the second half they continued to fight, and they ended up winning 31-30. Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions in the first half, and that was one of the big issues they had. Lawrence finished the game completing 28 of his 47 passes for 288 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions. The Jaguars are averaging 23.8 points while their defense is giving up 20.6 points per game. Brandon Scherff is dealing with an abdominal injury and is questionable for this game. 

Chiefs Preview

On the other side of this matchup is the Chiefs who sit with a 14-3 record overall and they have gone 5-11-1 against the spread. The Chiefs are the number one seed so while the Jaguars were making the comeback, Kansas City was watching from their couch. In the last regular season game the Chiefs were able to secure a 31-13 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. One thing that has suddenly become a strength for this Chiefs offense has been the running game. Isaiah Pacheco, Ronald Jones, and Jerick McKinnon have all stepped up the last few weeks, and all three should be used in this game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire also could be back after being activated from the IR. The Chiefs are averaging 29.2 points while their defense is giving up 21.7 points per game. On the season, Mahomes has thrown for 5,250 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Mecole Hardman is dealing with an abdominal injury and is questionable for this game. 

Jaguars and Chiefs Trends

The Jaguars are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in the Jaguars last four games against a team with a winning record. The Under is 4-0 in the Jaguars' last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.


The Jaguars were able to make a comeback in the last game, but I’m really concerned with the way that Trevor Lawrence played. He threw four interceptions and if he struggles early in this game, it’s going to be a long game for the Jaguars. I expect Lawrence is going to struggle here and that will hurt Jacksonville’s chances. The Chiefs scored 27 points the first time they faced off against Jacksonville and they are going to score at least that here. This is going to be an easy victory for Kansas City. Back the Chiefs against the spread. 

Shane’s Pick Chiefs -8.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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