Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 1/24/21 NFL Picks and Prediction
Photo by Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) vs Buffalo Bills (15-3)
Game Info: Sunday, January 24, 2021 at 6:40 pm (Arrowhead Stadium)
Betting Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -3 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
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The Buffalo Bills will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday night in AFC Championship.
The Buffalo Bills was able to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship after defeating the Baltimore Ravens, 17-3, this past Saturday. Buffalo was led by an incredible effort by their defense had no trouble securing the victory after a 101-yard pick-six by Taron Johnson gave the Bills a 17-3 lead with :41 seconds left in the 3rd quarter. Buffalo was outgained by Baltimore by a 340-220 margin, however, did win the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Bills on the offensive end was WR Stefon Diggs who had 8 receptions for 106 yards & 1 TD.
In the regular season, Buffalo averaged 31.3 ppg on 396.4 total yards per game (288.8 passing yds/g; 107.7 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Buffalo has been led by QB Josh Allen who has completed 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards (311.1 passing yds/g), 37 TD, & 10 INT. Allen was a threat with his legs as he had 421 yards & 8 TD’s on the ground. The top receiving threats for Allen and the Bills have been Stefon Diggs (127 rec, 1,535 yards, 8 TD), Cole Beasley (82 rec, 967 yards, 4 TD), Gabriel Davis (35 rec, 599 yards, 7 TD), & John Brown (33 rec, 458 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Bills backfield has been the duo of Devin Singletary (156 att, 687 yards, 2 TD) & Zach Moss (112 att, 481 yards, 4 TD).
Defensively, Buffalo allowing their opponents to average 23.4 ppg on 352.5 total yards per game (232.9 passing yds/g; 119.6 rushing yds/g).
The Kansas City Chiefs kept their hopes of winning back-to-back Superbowl’s alive after defeating the Cleveland Brown, 22-17, this past Sunday. Kansas City looked like they were going to cruise to victory in the 2nd half after going into halftime with a 19-3 lead, however, after a concussion that knocked out Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City needed some key plays late by backup Chad Hanne to hang on for the victory. Kansas City outgained Cleveland by a 438-308 margin while also winning the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Chiefs was TE Travis Kelce who had 8 receptions for 109 yards & 1 TD.
In the regular season, Kansas City averaged 29.6 ppg on 415.8 total yards per game (303.4 passing yds/g; 112.4 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Kansas City has been led by QB Patrick Mahomes who has completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,740 yards (336.5 passing yds/g), 38 TD, & 6 INT. The top receiving threats for the Mahomes and the Chiefs have been Travis Kelce (105 rec, 1,416 yards, 11 TD), Tyreek Hill (87 rec, 1,276 yards, 15 TD), Mecole Hardman (41 rec, 560 yards, 4 TD), & Demarcus Robinson (45 rec, 466 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Kansas City backfield has been Clyde Edwards-Helaire (181 att, 803 yards, 4 TD), Le’Veon Bell (63 att, 254 yards, 2 TD), & Darrel Williams (39 att, 169 yards, 1 TD). Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t missed the entire playoffs, but as he was close to playing last Sunday, I think he will be able to go in this one.
Defensively, Kansas City is allowing their opponents to average 22.6 ppg on 358.3 total yards per game (236.2 passing yds/g; 122.1 rushing yds/g).
The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
We will obviously have to monitor the status of Patrick Mahomes throughout the week to make sure he is able to go, however, early indications look like he will be able to play and my current pick assumes that he will be able to go on Sunday. Buffalo has had an incredible season and was impressive defensively against Baltimore, however, I just don’t see their defense being able to slow down the Kansas City passing attack in this one. Kansas defeated Buffalo by a 26-17 margin on the road earlier this season and as I expect a similar result at home in this one, I’m taking Kansas City to cover this small spread. Good Luck!
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