Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans - 1/12/20 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans - 1/12/20 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

NFL Football: Sunday, January 12, 2020 at 3:05 pm (Arrowhead Stadium)

The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 -- Over/Under:

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The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs meet Sunday in the NFL AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Houston Texans look for another playoff victory after escaping the Buffalo Bills last Saturday in overtime. The Houston Texans have won four of their last six road games. Deshaun Watson is completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 3,852 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Watson has two or more touchdown passes in 14 of his last 24 games. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V have combined for 1,835 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Kenny Stills has 40 receptions. The Houston Texans ground game is averaging 125.6 yards per contest, and Carlos Hyde leads the way with 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Houston is allowing 24.1 points and 388.3 yards per game. Zach Cunningham leads the Houston Texans with 142 tackles, Whitney Mercilus has 7.5 sacks and Tashaun Gipson has three interceptions.

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The Kansas City Chiefs enter this playoff contest riding a solid six-game winning streak. The Kansas City Chiefs have won four straight home games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. Mahomes has three or more touchdown passes in five of his last 14 games. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined for 2,089 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while Sammy Watkins has 52 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 98.1 yards per contest, and Damien Williams leads the way with 498 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 19.3 points and 349.6 yards per game. Anthony Hitchens leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 88 tackles, Chris Jones has nine sacks and Tyrann Mathieu has four interceptions.

The Texans are a convincing 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. The Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 road games. The under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games overall. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. 

You can argue that no team finished the season stronger than the Kansas City Chiefs, as the offense found its groove since their bye week and the defense allowed single digits in three of their last five games. The Houston Texans needed to dig deep to beat the Bills last week and the wear and tear of playing nearly five full quarters of playoff football could impact them in this contest. On paper, the Chiefs should probably roll in this game. However, I've said it before and I'll say it again, Deshaun Watson in big games evens the playing field for me. The guy shines brightest in big moments and usually gives his team a chance, and last week was no different when he dominated the second half and made a jaw dropping play in overtime to set up the game winning field goal. The Texans already beat the Chiefs this season in Arrowhead and went toe-to-toe with them back in 2017 in Houston, losing 34-42. I want the points.

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Randy’s Pick Houston Texans +8.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.