Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots - 1/4/20 NFL Wild Card Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots - 1/4/20 NFL Wild Card Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans (9-7) at New England Patriots (12-4)

NFL Football: Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 8:15 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -5 -- Over/Under: 44.5

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The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots meet Saturday in AFC Wild Card NFL action at Gillette Stadium.

The Tennessee Titans enter this playoff game winning seven of their last 10 games. The Tennessee Titans have won their last three road games. Ryan Tannehill is completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 2,742 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. Tannehill and Marcus Mariota have combined for 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions. A.J. Brown and Corey Davis have combined for 1,652 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Jonnu Smith has 35 receptions. The Tennessee Titans ground game is averaging 138.9 yards per contest, and Derrick Henry leads the way with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns. Defensively, Tennessee is allowing 20.7 points and 359.5 yards per game. Logan Ryan leads the Tennessee Titans with 113 tackles, Harold Landry III has nine sacks and Kevin Byard has five interceptions.

The New England Patriots enter the playoffs in shaky form after splitting their last eight games. The New England Patriots have won six of their last eight home games. Tom Brady is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 4,057 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Brady has three or more touchdown passes in seven of his last 23 games. Julian Edelman and James White have combined for 1,762 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns while Phillip Dorsett has 29 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 106.4 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 912 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 14.1 points and 275.9 yards per game. Jamie Collins Sr. leads the New England Patriots with 81 tackles, Kyle Van Noy has 6.5 sacks and Stephon Gilmore has six interceptions.

The Titans are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games. The over is 9-1 in Titans last 10 games overall. The over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games overall. The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

I've been saying for most of this season that the New England Patriots aren't the same team we're used to seeing, and we're now starting to see that more consistently with losses in three of their last vive tries, including last week as 17-point favorites to the Miami Dolphins. Brady is slower with his decision making, his offensive line is shaky at best and receivers can't get open. That New England defense also isn't the same as it was earlier in the season. The Pats are no longer the boogeyman that scares people. The Tennessee Titans play defense and have a monster at running back in Derrick Henry who can chew up the clock. I'm not thrilled about backing a Tannehill-led team in the playoffs, but I'm not laying chalk with the Patriots. 


Randy’s Pick Tennessee Titans +5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.