New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans - 1/4/20 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Over on the Patriots’ side, they finished at 12-4 on the year. New England finished the regular season at 2-3 in their last five, beating the Bengals and Bills while losing to the Texans, Chiefs and Dolphins. 

In the loss to the Dolphins, New England’s Tom Brady put up 221 yards with two TDs and one INT. Sony Michel added 74 rush yards and a TD there, and Phillip Dorsett caught one 50-yard pass. 

The Titans are just 3-6 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 26-51-5 ATS in their last 82 versus the AFC. The over is 9-1 in Tennessee’s last 10 overall and 6-1 in their last seven versus the AFC. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 42-20-3 ATS in their last 64 home games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six versus the AFC. The over is 5-1 in New England’s last six versus the AFC and the under is 18-9 in their last 27 as a favorite. 

Tennessee had just a seven-point lead heading into the fourth quarter against the Texans, but a 14-0 spot in that frame sealed the win and put the icing on a much better-than-expected campaign for the Titans. The good news is that Tannehill has some experience playing at Gillette; the bad news is it’s Gillette, and the Titans haven’t looked especially dominant over the last three weeks. 

New England hasn’t quite been themselves over the past couple of weeks either, especially in that shocking loss to the Dolphins that kicked the team out of a first-round bye. Still, the Pats are the proverbial kings of the hill until someone knocks them off, and I feel like it's still safe to take them in a home playoff game. I’m leaning toward New England here.