Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills - 1/4/20 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
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Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Houston Texans (10-6)
NFL Football: Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 4:35 pm (NRG Stadium)
The Line: Houston Texans -3 -- Over/Under: 42.5
The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans meet Saturday in the AFC Wild Card NFL Playoffs at NRG Stadium.
The Buffalo Bills enter the playoffs losing three of their last four games. The Buffalo Bills have won four of their last six road games. Josh Allen is completing 58.8 percent of his passes for 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Allen has one or less touchdown passes in 18 of his last 26 games. John Brown and Cole Beasley have combined for 1,838 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while Dawson Knox has 28 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 128.4 yards per contest, and Devin Singletary leads the way with 775 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 16.2 points and 298.3 yards per game. Tremaine Edmunds leads the Buffalo Bills with 115 tackles, Jordan Phillips has 9.5 sacks and Tre'Davious White has six interceptions.
The Houston Texans enter the playoffs winning four of their last six games. The Houston Texans have won four of their last six home games. Deshaun Watson is completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 3,852 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Watson has two or more touchdown passes in 14 of his last 24 games. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V have combined for 1,835 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Kenny Stills has 40 receptions. The Houston Texans ground game is averaging 125.6 yards per contest, and Carlos Hyde leads the way with 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Houston is allowing 24.1 points and 388.3 yards per game. Zach Cunningham leads the Houston Texans with 142 tackles, Whitney Mercilus has 7.5 sacks and Tashaun Gipson has three interceptions.
The Bills are a solid 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. The under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games overall. The under is 21-10 in Texans last 31 vs. AFC. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
The Buffalo Bills have what it takes to succeed in the playoffs in a solid ground game and one of the better defenses in the league. The Houston Texans can be a little soft in the trenches and I am concerned about Bill O'Brien in big games, as he doesn't have the best track record in the world. The Bills have been doubted all season and have done nothing but win and cover games. With all that said, it's very tough for me to bet against Deshaun Watson in big games. The kid shows up in moments like this and if he gets going, I don't believe Josh Allen and the Bills offense can match. The Texans are also expected to get JJ Watt back on defense, which is obviously a major boost to that defensive front. I wouldn't be shocked if the Bills bullied their way to victory, but I'm siding with the Texans because of Watson leading the way.