Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 10/12/20 NFL Picks and Prediction

On the season, Denver is averaging 20.5 ppg on 333.3 total yards per game (240.8 passing yds/g; 92.5 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Denver has been led by Melvin Gordon III who had 281 rushing yards (70.3 rushing yds/g) & 3 TD’s on 65 carries. The Broncos haven’t had their starting QB Drew Lock (60.5 comp %, 236 yards, TD) due to injury and have used both Brett Rypien (67.5 comp %, 295 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) & Jeff Driskel (54.7 comp %, 432 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Currently, Drew Lock is 50/50 in terms of playing this week and if he cannot go, it looks as if Denver will stick with Brett Rypien who got the start agianst the Jets. Denver lost their top receiver, Courtland Sutton, for the season and currently have been led by Jerry Jeudy (15 rec, 234 yards, TD), Noah Fant (19 rec, 219 yards, 2 TD), and Tim Patrick (16 rec, 209 yards, 2 TD).

Defensively, Denver is allowing their opponents to average 24.5 ppg on 384.8 total yards per game (275.8 passing yds/g; 109.0 rushing yds/g).

The New England Patriots dropped to 2-2 on the season after being defeated by the Kansas City Chiefs, 26-10, this past Monday night. New England’s defense was up to the challenge and for the most part, did an excellent job containing Patrick Mahomes, however, the Patriots couldn’t overcome some major mistakes on the offensive end, including a pick-6 off a rare dropped pass by Julien Edelman which gave the Chiefs a 26-10 lead with 8:48 left in regulation. New England outgained Kansas City by a 357-323 margin, however, lost the turnover battle by a 4-1 margin in the loss. Leading the way for the Patriots was Damien Harris who had 100 rushing yards on 17 carries.

On the season, New England is averaging 24.3 ppg on 405.8 total yards per game (226.0 passing yds/g; 179.8 rushing yds/g). Offensively, New England has been led by QB Cam Newton who has completed 68.1% of his passes for 714 yards (287.7 passing yds/g), 2 TD, & 2 INT. Newton has also picked up 149 rushing yds & 4 TD’s on the season. Cam Newton missed the game agianst Kansas City after getting COVID-19 and if he is forced to miss this game, it looks like the Patriots will go with Jarrett Stidham who replaced Brian Hoyer in the 4th quarter agianst the Chiefs. The top receiving threats for the Patriots have been Julian Edelman (18 rec, 294 yards), Damiere Byrd (14 rec, 179 yards), N’Keal Harry (18 rec, 166 yards, TD), & Rex Burkhead (12 rec, 101 yards, TD). Leading the way for the Patriots backfield has been Sony Michel (26 att, 173 yards, TD), Rex Burkhead (30 att, 128 yards, 2 TD), and Damien Harris (17 att, 100 yards).

Defensively, New England is holding their opponents to an average of 23.0 ppg on 359.3 total yards per game (244.0 passing yds/g; 115.3 rushing yds/g).

The Broncos are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games, however, are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. New England. The Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games, however, are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. Denver.

This game still has a lot of question marks as we won’t know the status of both starting QB’s until later in the week. Denver’s offense that has struggled to put up points and between the fact that I think the Patriots defense will give whoever is under center for the Broncos trouble and that Denver generally has really struggled at Gillette Stadium, I’m leaning on taking New England to cover this big spread. Good Luck!

UPDATE - This game has been moved to Monday, October 12th at 5:00pm. As of now, we still are not sure if either Drew Lock or Cam Newton will be able to play so I'm still sticking w/ my original thoughts that as the Denver offense I don't think will be able to put many points, I think the Patriots still cover this large spread.