New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins - 12/29/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins - 12/29/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Dolphins (4-11) at New England Patriots (12-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, December 29, 2019 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -16.5 -- Over/Under: 43.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots meet Sunday in week 17 NFL action at Gillette Stadium.

The Miami Dolphins look to play spoiler after splitting their last eight games. The Miami Dolphins have lost their last three road games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 3,209 yards, 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Josh Rosen and Fitzpatrick has have combined for 20 touchdowns and 18 interceptions this season. DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have combined for 1,601 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns while Preston Williams has 32 receptions. The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 72.9 yards per contest, and Fitzpatrick leads the way with 228 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 31.3 points and 400.8 yards per game. Jerome Baker leads the Miami Dolphins with 118 tackles, Taco Charlton has five sacks and Bobby McCain has two interceptions.


The New England Patriots look to lockup a top-two seed in the AFC after splitting their last four games. The New England Patriots have won five of their last six home games. Tom Brady is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 3,836 yards, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Brady has three or more touchdown passes in seven of his last 22 games. Julian Edelman and James White have combined for 1,703 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Jakobi Meyers has 26 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 104.5 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 838 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 13.2 points and 268.3 yards per game. Jamie Collins Sr. leads the New England Patriots with 78 tackles, Kyle Van Noy has 6.5 sacks and Stephon Gilmore has six interceptions.

The Dolphins are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Patriots are 42-19-3 ATS in their last 64 home games, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games overall. The over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 games overall. The over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New England and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The favorite is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings. The home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

The Miami Dolphins continue to play hard for their coaching staff and are building positive vibes as they complete the first year of their rebuild. Fitzpatrick is coming off one of the better games of his career and the fins would love nothing more than to prevent a division rival from clinching a bye in the first round. As I've said many weeks ago, the New England Patriots are finding ways to win games but hardly look impressive. The receivers aren't getting open, Brady struggles with pressure and a defense that once looked special has shown some holes, including last week giving up big passing plays to Josh Freaking Allen. This is too much respect for the Patriots. Give me the Dolphins and the boatload of points.

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Randy’s Pick Miami Dolphins +16.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.