Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots - 12/29/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots - 12/29/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Dolphins (4-11) at New England Patriots (12-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, December 29, 2019 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -16 -- Over/Under: 44.5

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The Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots meet in NFL action from Gillette Stadium on Sunday. 

The Dolphins enter this one at 4-11 overall. Miami is 2-4 in their last six games, falling to the Bills, browns, Jets and Giants but taking out the Browns and Bengals. 

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In the win over the Bengals, Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 419 yards with four TDs and an INT, and Myles Gaskin had 55 yards and a TD rushing. DeVante Parker added 111 yards and a score off three receptions as well. 

Over on the Pats’ side, they’re 12-3 this year. New England had consecutive losses going versus the Texans and the Chiefs, but since they’ve won their last pair versus the Bengals and Bills. 

In the win over the Bills, Pats QB Tom Brady put up 271 yards with one TD, and Sony Michel had 96 yards rushing. Rex Burkhead managed 77 yards on four receptions there. 

The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall. Miami is 5-2 ATS in the last seven after an ATS win and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 on turf. 

Meanwhile, the Pats are 22-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 in Week 17. New England is 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five versus the AFC. 

If you throw out the records, Miami’s win over Cincinnati was a pretty great OT game, though many Dolphins fans are probably still angry over the damage to their 2020 draft position. In any case, Miami’s offense has been holding its own lately with at least 20 points in each of the last six outings. 

The last time these teams met was a 43-0 drubbing in a Patriots win at Hard Rock, and though I don’t doubt the Pats will take a victory here things shouldn’t be nearly that bad with the pre-playoff rest routine in effect. At more than two TDs, I’m going to take a chance on the Dolphins here but I don’t really like it. 

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Andrew’s Pick Miami Dolphins +16

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.