Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans - 12/29/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
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Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5)
NFL Football: Sunday, December 29, 2019 at 4:25 pm (NRG Stadium)
The Line: Houston Texans +4.5 -- Over/Under: 48
The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans meet Sunday in week 17 NFL action at NRG Stadium.
The Tennessee Titans need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive after winning six of their last nine games. The Tennessee Titans have split their last six road games. Ryan Tannehill is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 2,544 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Tannehill and Marcus Mariota have combined for 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions. A.J. Brown and Corey Davis have combined for 1,584 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Jonnu Smith has 35 receptions. The Tennessee Titans ground game is averaging 131.9 yards per contest, and Derrick Henry leads the way with 1,329 yards and 13 touchdowns. Defensively, Tennessee is allowing 21.1 points and 363.4 yards per game. Logan Ryan leads the Tennessee Titans with 109 tackles, Harold Landry III has nine sacks and Kevin Byard has four interceptions.
The Houston Texans look to stay hot after winning six of their last eight games. The Houston Texans have won four of their last five home games. Deshaun Watson is completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 3,852 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Watson has two or more touchdown passes in 14 of his last 24 games. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V have combined for 1,835 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Kenny Stills has 40 receptions. The Houston Texans ground game is averaging 126.7 yards per contest, and Carlos Hyde leads the way with 1,057 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Houston is allowing 23.3 points and 383.1 yards per game. Zach Cunningham leads the Houston Texans with 139 tackles, Whitney Mercilus has 7.5 sacks and Tashaun Gipson has three interceptions.
The Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 25-51-5 ATS in their last 81 vs. AFC and 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 vs. AFC South. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. The over is 8-1 in Titans last 9 games overall. The under is 6-2 in Texans last 8 games overall. The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Houston and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. The home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
This line has moved heavily in the direction of the Tennessee Titans, and it's likely due to them having to win this game to sneak into the playoffs. Motivation has a lot to do with handicapping week 17 of the NFL season. With that said, the Houston Texans have an outside shot of moving from the fourth seed to the third seed with a victory here, while also keeping a division rival out of the postseason. While the Texans may decided to rest players anyway with a wild card game coming up, I'll still back them and the points at home. The Titans defense has looked shaky the last couple of weeks and Derrick Henry is still battling a hamstring injury that kept him out against the Saints. I'm just not buying the massive line movement.