New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills - 12/21/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills - 12/21/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)

NFL Football: Saturday, December 21, 2019 at 4:30 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -6 -- Over/Under: 38.5

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The Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots meet in a crucial week 16 AFC East division matchup from Gillette Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The Buffalo Bills come into this game looking to build on a 17-10 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday night football that gave Buffalo their first 10-win season since 1999. Josh Allen threw for 139 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 13 of 25 passing while also rushing for a touchdown as well. Devin Singletary led Buffalo with 87 rushing yards on 21 carries while John Brown led the Bills with 7 catches for 99 yards and Tyler Kroft had a receiving score as well. Defensively, Tremaine Edmunds led Buffalo with 8 total tackles while Jordan Phillips had a pair of sacks. Tre’Davious White had a pair of interceptions while Levi Wallace and Jordan Poyer each had an interception as well, with Poyer also logging a fumble recovery. As a team, Buffalo is averaging 336.1 yards of total offense and 20.8 points per game while allowing 291.9 yards of total defense and 15.9 points per game against this season.

The New England Patriots will look to lock up yet another division title after improving to 11-3 on the year with a 34-13 win over Cincinnati in their last outing. Tom Brady threw for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 of 29 passing while Sony Michel led the Pats with 89 rushing yards on 19 carries and Rex Burkhead added a rushing touchdown. James White led the Patriots in receiving with 3 catches for 49 yards and a touchdown while N’Keal Harry added a receiving score of his own in the win. Defensively, Ja’Whaun Bentley led the Patriots with 8 total tackles while Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson each had a pair of interceptions with Gilmore returning one 64 yards for a touchdown in the 3rd quarter. As a team, New England is averaging 349.9 yards of total offense and 26.5 points per game while owning the stoutest defense in the league, allowing just 268.4 yards of total offense and 12.9 points per game, both tops in the NFL.

Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 division games while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. New England is 42-19-2 ATS in their last 63 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 18-8 in their last 26 games overall. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these two teams and Buffalo is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in New England.

I know the Patriots have pretty much owned the Bills over the years with Tom Brady under center, but if we’re being honest, this is the first time that the Bills have been a real threat for the division under this regime this late in the season. I counted Buffalo out against the Steelers and the Bills proved they were legit by going on the road in a hostile environment and taking down a Steelers team that was red hot going into that game. I’m not 100% sure that New England’s offensive woes are cured by playing Cincinnati and this is where we really see where the offense measures up against a really good Buffalo defense. I think New England probably wins this game, but I don’t see it by being more than 3-4 points so I’ll take Buffalo and the points in this one.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.