Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - 12/21/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - 12/21/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)

NFL Football: Saturday, December 21, 2019 at 4:30 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -6.5 -- Over/Under: 37.5

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The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots meet Saturday in week 16 NFL action at Gillette Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills look for another statement win after winning seven of their last 10 games. The Buffalo Bills have won their last three road games. Josh Allen is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 2,876 yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Allen has one or less touchdown passes in 18 of his last 25 games. John Brown and Cole Beasley have combined for 1,677 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns while Dawson Knox has 27 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 134.9 yards per contest, and Devin Singletary leads the way with 729 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 15.9 points and 291.9 yards per game. Tremaine Edmunds leads the Buffalo Bills with 104 tackles, Jordan Phillips has 9.5 sacks and Tre'Davious White has six interceptions.

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The New England Patriots look for a win after splitting their last six games. The New England Patriots have won five of their last six home games. Tom Brady is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 3,565 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Brady has three or more touchdown passes in seven of his last 21 games. Julian Edelman and James White have combined for 1,607 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Phillip Dorsett has 28 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 101.8 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 742 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 12.9 points and 268.4 yards per game. Jamie Collins Sr. leads the New England Patriots with 72 tackles, Kyle Van Noy has 6.5 sacks and Stephon Gilmore has six interceptions.

The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog, 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games, 42-19-2 ATS in their last 63 home games and 48-23 ATS in their last 71 games overall. The under is 20-8 in Bills last 28 games overall. The under is 18-8 in Patriots last 26 games overall. The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

I've been fading the New England Patriots for a while now and it seems like this team shows more and more flaws each week. Brady can't deal with pressure, his receivers have a hard time getting open and the defense hasn't been as dominant as it was earlier in the season. The Buffalo Bills may not be the sexiest team in the world, but they play old school football with a ground attack and defense, and they've not only won seven of their last 10, but they're 9-4-1 ATS on the season. The Bills also took the Pats down to the wire when these clubs met back in September. Give me my free touchdown.

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Randy’s Pick Buffalo Bills +6.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.