Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints - 11/28/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints - 11/28/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-8)

NFL Football: Thursday, November 28, 2019 at 8:20 pm (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

The Line: Atlanta Falcons +7 -- Over/Under: 50 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons meet Thursday in week 13 NFL action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The New Orleans Saints look for a third straight win to see double-digit victories for the third straight year. The New Orleans Saints have won four straight road games. Drew Brees is completing 75.7 percent of his passes for 1,607 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. Brees and Teddy Bridgewater have combined for 20 touchdown passes and six interceptions. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara have combined for 1,663 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while Jared Cook has 29 receptions. The New Orleans Saints ground game is averaging 108.5 yards per contest, and Kamara leads the way with 526 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing 20.9 points and 321.3 yards per game. Demario Davis leads the New Orleans Saints with 80 tackles, Cameron Jordan has 9.5 sacks and Marcus Williams has four interceptions.

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The Atlanta Falcons look to play spoiler after losing seven of their last nine games. The Atlanta Falcons have lost four straight home games. Matt Ryan is completing 67 percent of his passes for 2,934 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Ryan has two or more touchdown passes in six of his last 10 games. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley have combined for 1,649 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Austin Hooper has 56 receptions. The Atlanta Falcons ground game is averaging 72.9 yards per contest, and Devonta Freeman leads the way with 371 yards on 107 carries. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 27 points and 376.3 yards per game. De’Vondre Campbell leads the Atlanta Falcons with 96 tackles, Grady Jarrett has 5.5 sacks and Desmond Trufant has four interceptions.

The Saints are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games, 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games overall. The over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 vs. NFC South.

The New Orleans Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The Atlanta Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. The New Orleans Saints have looked shaky in two of their last three games, and that includes a 23-point loss to these Falcons as two-touchdown favorites. The Atlanta Falcons returned to the team they've been all season with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and haven't won a home game since week two. Instead of playing a side, I'm leaning toward the over in this game. The Falcons defense has gotten torched much of the season and the Saints offense is starting to heat up with 68 points in their last two games. If we can get anything from Matt Ryan and company, this game should sail over the total of 50 points.

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